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  • paqxman paqxman Feb 26, 2013 3:43 PM Flag

    SVNT GREEN & ER 3-19-13

    This is my take

    SVNT is green as of right now.

    ER was delayed past options-ex because mgmt knows that most of the call holders are short the stock. Pushing out earnings past the March calls expiration shows they are aware of this. In an effort to remove the hedge of the shorts you announce great earnings (partnership, % of co promotion profits) during the call after their hedge (March options) have expired.

    Watch the fireworks!!!

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • while I'm less certain of that hypothesis, it would be sweet to fry some shorts. My worry is the mgmt (all of them) have not been making good decisions or executing well in regards to commercial strategy, and I hope this sin't more of the same. LF was touting partnership progress but nothing so far. He indicated at one point they were looking at multiple offers. They are on a clock due to cash burn and I think the more the clock ticks away the weaker their position becomes. I hope this is to announce bigger news, and plausible that a lot of calls are hedged shorts. Sucks for longs in those calls, though.

      • 2 Replies to backin_indy
      • It does look like management is playing a game. I think it is very bad form to delay an announcement in order to hurt options holders, even if many of them are short. There are many retail longs who bought those options as well. I am not short and this delay could be extremely costly to me. It honestly makes me sick. I have lost many years salary due to Savient management making multiple statements that they have completely failed to deliver on. If they can deliver now and choose to wait just to stick it to the March options holders, that is borderline criminal.

        I guess we'll see how it plays out. I don't think the delay is because sales are soooo good, but it could be because there is something else in the works and they want to give time for that. Hopefully if there is something to announce they will not hold it back but release it in a timely manner. It is time for this to play out.

        The product is worth more than the current share price reflects. Management could still "play" this right into bankruptcy though. Enough with the games!! Play it straight.

      • Make sure you don't sell this is about short getting the big F.......SOON!:-)

    • no question about it. Its an easy call to make. If you are ferrari, meeker, etc., you don't let all the shorts buy from themselves. expect the smart money to be relieving their short positions soon. Double bottom + shorts on a ledge = profits.

    • terencesoon Feb 26, 2013 11:38 PM Flag

      I'm pretty sure that there are a significant number of call holder who are long the stock as well. Not that I actually feel for the option holders cos I don't own any options for svnt, but I think that pushing back the earnings so far back (almost a month) bodes of sthg that I just can't get my head around on.

      Volume has totally dried up for the past few weeks, even more so for the past few days. Short interest is crazily high now, and of course IF any good news were to come, the shorts would not be able to escape far enough. Might lead to a good short squeeze. But who knows? If its bad news, I dare say long-term shareholders are screwed big time.

      • 1 Reply to terencesoon
      • EXACTLY guys. When I saw it's going to be LATER than expected "pushed back", there has to be a LOGICAL reason.

        SHORTS will claim it's because they are putting off bad news. WHY??!!! They somehow expect the bad news to somehow go away in few weeks??!! They need time to pack their bags & head to the Bahamas??!!! Gives them time to get their "Bug out bags" ready??!! IF it's bad, putting it OFF will NOT CHANGE REALLY ANYTHING! Get it out, get it overwith. If you're "dead", you're "dead".

        EVERYONE (I'll bet they do too) KNOWS the amount of SHORTS here is LARGE, and that they have severely damaged the pps (at least in the short term). I'm not sure about LF, but Meeker is no slouch, and I'm a NICE guy myself & wish NO ONE ill, but I'm READY to REALLY put the screws into some SHORTS, and I will lose NO SLEEP when it happens.

        In a nut shell, TWO reasons for delay;
        Bad news: WHY?! Aint gonna change anything.
        Good News: Payback time to the Shorts. STRONG reason there.

        There will be PLENTY of VALID arguments over the next couple weeks as to WHY it was delayed. For my money I think the GOOD news argument has a stonger case.

        Of course maybe they ARE getting their "bug out bags" ready, but then WHY would SOBI partner with a crew that has "bug out bags" lining the Executive board room??

        Sentiment: Hold