The FINAL deal will potentially provide an additional 10-15% premium to the existing PGN shareholders. Final deal will be valued at $15-16.5 Billion and a PGN share price of $51-54. Several of the PGN institutional shareholders are not pleased on how this preliminary deal was structured and will be pressing hard for an additional premium or force opportunity for competing bids. BlackRock own stakes in both companies. Though a long shot, NextEra (NEE), Southern (SO) and/or Dominion (D) may enter the process. Both NEE and SO have strong management teams and stronger financials for closing the deal.
This deal is not so good for existing DUK shareholders. Increasing the debt load to over $32 Billion and limited ability to increase reveneue is not a good value proposition for DUK shareholders.
The fact is DUK has been an underperformer for four years. The DUK CEO has set the stage for his exit and hadoff to the younger PGN CEO. It is also a terrible deal for DUK employees and Charlotte HQ base. The Raleigh based PGN HQ team is in the driver's seat on the planned merged company and will need to reduce the expense line quickly to make the deal work. With the utility consolidation game heating up in early 2011, it may be wise to sell some of the big dog utilities and select a few more of the mid-size utility gems in the $3-10B market cap range. Happy hunting and be patient with the eventual PGN premium.
Any PGN stockholder should be jumping for joy. Progress has been stale (and actually going downhill) ever since their ill-fated Florida purchase.
DUK is one of the most progressive utility companies in America (not that I necessarilty agreed with everything Jim Rogers has said), but you certainly haven't seen PGN investing in wind farms, solar energy and the like that DUK has.
I`m with you. I own both DUK and PGN and in this uncertain economy both companies literally could have cut their dividends. The deal is a net positive in my book.
I`m holding both issues and will get the DUK shares down the road assuming it`s approved!
The deal will be accretive and the ultimate DUK shareholders will be rewarded in my opinion.
Best of luck to all,
Under the deal’s terms, Duke will exchange 2.6125 of its shares for each of Progress’ shares, which, based on Friday’s close, would give Progress shareholders $46.48 for each of their shares. That number represents a 3.9% premium to Progress’s closing stock price at the end of last week.
Bottom line: There is a lot of uncertainty with such an arrangement. That I do not like. However, PGN shareholders could end up with substantially more, if DUK share value advances back up into the 18.50 area where it was previously.
Progress has the cleaner balance sheet and better prospects going forward. We should have stood alone or demanded at least $50. per share. Duk has underperformed for some time . Were it not for the spin off of the solid performing gas division several years ago , shareholders would really be sad.
I'm somewhat pleased. Keep in mind the recent run-up in PGN stock price was likely fueled by rumors of this buy-out/merger. The combined company should continue to generate strong cash flow and generous dividends.