I made a mistake!! Doing my analysis for the miners I was using GDX chart assuming that the "base" ETF like GDX will follow the index it's supposed to follow precisely. Wrong assumption and I was hit with this error on the head last night. Last night closing of GDX was above of the low of 2012 which is @ $38.94.
Although the difference in closing price and this resistance level was marginal and I'd wait for the close of the week to call it a break out I started analyzing the situation on the indexes themselves.
The 2012 low on HUI was $375.77 yesterday's close of this index was $369.73, that's 1.60% below resistance level.
As anal as I am with my analysis, I also checked $XAU.
The 2012 low on this index was $141.60, yesterday's closing was $139.71 - 1.33% below resistance level.
A wise man on this board said: It takes character to admit your own mistakes. So if I can be accused in a lapse of judgment, at least I hope I'll be credited with having character.
From now on I do all analysis on either one or both of the indexes.
IMHO, $5.60ish IS NOT the best, or the smartest time to enter for long(er) term or even a swing trade. the 2006-2007 lows will be a great time to enter, but it could easily be $3.00-3.50 on NUGT, quite a bit of paper loss if you enter @ $5.60. the entry price for a swing trade would be a weekly closing above 2012 low, as long as you bear in mind it'll have a good chance of max 60% gain before it reaches 50 week MA.
The error in analysis was so marginal, it really didn't change anything in conclusion. I wrote before, I am making long(er) term conclusions ONLY based on weekly closing prices. So the error made me hesitate for a minute and tirned my attention to the indexes vs. GDX. I'll have to re-write my targets for the index prices, but the idea is the same:
1. As of right now we are going to 2006-2007 lows
2. If we have strong sustainable break out above the low of 2012 we'll go, at the best, to the 50 week MA. This will complete H&S with the lower shoulder lower than the right one and than we'll go to 2006-2007 lows
3. There are two targets that will turn me bullish: a) we hit the 2006-2007 lows or b) the index will have a strong sustainable break out above the 50 week MA.
I will plug in actual index prices over the weekend in my weekly summary.
All of this is of cause JMHO.