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Ultra Petroleum Corp. Message Board

  • red_sox_10_nyy_3 red_sox_10_nyy_3 Oct 26, 2004 11:02 AM Flag

    Earnings and Reserves

    Once again I am more interested in any updates we get on drilling success and the outlook for increasing reserves. I believe the last PR (in which we learned of the three monster wells) has swung the pendelum a tad back to the reserve side of the equation with regards to our long term PPS driver. Earnings will no doubt be just fine regardless of whether they are a bit above or below expectations. We may see a spike or a dip based on earnings, but if the drilling situation remains top-shelf than the table is set for a continued long term up trend. Reserve potential seems to be in a snowball mode with a lot of upside to come. I expect more good stuff on Bohai as well. The combination of these two assets makes UPL the biggest no-brainer I ever have ever seen in twenty-four years of investing.

    TOTI,
    Andy

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    • harhar.
      Got 2 land lines now, but neither one works.
      Cell phone is one and close by, ruf mir gleich, wieder schauen!
      Sepp

    • STU:

      LOL. You crack me up more than I do. Stay close to your cell Thurs. and Fri. I gotta leave the good ol US and I may need to call ya for updates.

      Cheers.

      Evil

    • Dear God, ES, I hope you are not living in reverse, you'll come into this world rich with assets and progeny, and leave it cold, naked and alone.
      No wonder we don't live life backwards!

      Lessee manana: what if Andy's idea is now it is?
      Stu

    • I agree 100% and most people understand that. Another managerial goof. My understanding is that out of respect for all he did for the Team they wanted him on the field when they won...I guess he can't even go to Boston anymore...

      TOTI, Andy

    • Assuming UPL posts earnings in the $0.32 to $0.35 range, what does it mean if the share price remains flat? Long-term this is just noise and a non-issue, but for those shareholders or options players that are focused on short term gains, has UPL lost some of its luster or have money managers and investors become so accustomed to strong earnings that they are no longer impressed by UPL's excellent performance? Just curious to hear your spin.

      • 1 Reply to rocksniffer2004
      • Rocksniffer,
        UPL is no longer the unknown company it was a few years ago when you could have all the shares you wanted for under a buck. Without a doubt there a lot of money managers that own the company in 2004. However, owning the company's stock and understanding what the company is all about are two different things. Based on what I have read only a select group of analysts truly understand why UPL is such an exciting company. The real excitement has little to do with this months earnings report. I plan on taking advantage of tomorrow's selloff, which I think will occur (no guarentees though...)

        I understand that those with options have a legitimate concern about what happens when earnings are released (probably tonight as Jean mentioned). I expect a sell off tomorrow morning no matter where earnings come in (I will be a buyer of shares if that happens) and a quick rebound that then stretches into new highs over the next 6 months. As you know options have their own set of risks, but I think UPL is probably a good underlying stock for a sharp options trader to work. I believe this for one simple reason; there is much less risk in this stock then the casual observer might believe. I believe those who understand the stock can take the lunch money of those who dump shares by buying shares (and options) on the dips. You don't need me to tell you this as the chart illustrates this simple fact.

        I think it is way to early to sell shares based on earnings. I am more concerned that cash flow and bank credit continues to grow, as it has. I see absolutely no reason why both won't continue to support the company's stratgic plan. I would be concerned if Watford or one of the other top brass were to leave the company. I don't see that happening!

        TOTI,
        Andy

    • Just curious. What was the second biggest no brainer after 24 tears of investing?
      Thanks
      RT

    • after that spike down on very low volume this morning (caused in part in my opinion by the erroneous opening price) we are now trading in the green today. I suspect UPL will continue to trade higher today prior to earnings....

      -CW-

 
UPL
0.3122Apr 29 4:02 PMEDT