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Ultra Petroleum Corp. Message Board

  • fshog72 Mar 1, 2013 3:48 PM Flag

    Price drop

    Anyone with info on cause of price drop?

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    • Many are exiting commodities...I say hang in there!

    • You know, it may just be market realization that this is going to be a very long process, longer than any of us thought, for supply to drop. We know that the first quarter (and likely the entire year) for 2013 is going to be much worse than the nightmare in 2012 because (it is my understanding) UPL is unhedged. Remember that as bad as things were last year the company was hedged and getting over $4/MMBtu. Expect less than $3.50 during the first quarter and hopefully creeping up for the rest of the year (if not things go from ugly to really, really ugly and cash flow negative). In other words, 2013 will likely be really bad no matter what and could be horrible. Its a scary stock, but I think natural gas is a long term investment and no one will tell us when the optimal time is to get in. I think you just buy and try to dollar cost average into it and try to ignore the losses. I don't think there is much of a chance that UPL goes banko unless we have another 2 to 3 years of sub $3.50 prices. I think in 10 years we will look at this price and think what an opportunity that was, but who knows....

      • 1 Reply to jeffffffffffrey
      • This is exactly right. Everyone knows the price is down as low as it can go. Those hedged at higher numbers can contine to sell natural gas, but the hedges are running out for 2013/2014. Wet gas is dropping now as well, which will put pressure for further curtailment. On the other side of the equation, demand is picking up, so it's just a matter of time before natural gas takes off. The first export terminal in the U.S. is set to sell LNG overseas in 2015. It's a waiting game!

        Sentiment: Buy

    • As of 2/15, there are 153 million outstanding and 15.8% of that is SHORT and I suspect that's what's bombing the PPS

0.31220.0000(0.00%)Apr 29 4:02 PMEDT