March weather and natural gas withdrawals from storage
The week of March 1 - 7 has been much colder than expected in the Eastern US. Last week there was a net natural gas withdrawal of 171 BCF. The 5 year average withdrawal for March 1 - 7 is 74 BCF. Considering the cold weather, the withdrawal for March 1 - 7 could be similar to last week, with a net withdrawal of 170 BCF. Next week, March 8 - 14, will also be very cold and snowy. The March 8 - 14 average withdrawal is only 26 BCF, so there can be another large withdrawal from storage with cold weather. The current 300 BCF surplus versus the 5 year average could be gone by the end of March. If we see a trend of large withdrawals from storage in March, it can also mean that natural gas production is dropping because of the big slowdown over the last 12 months in shale natural gas drilling and the depletion of shale wells which averages 30 - 50% annually. A longer winter in the Eastern US can have a big impact in a hurry on natural gas prices and storage.
With all respect to you for at least understanding the fundamentals. I think the market is also aware of any prospects/ possibilities for larger than seasonal March withdraws, and the market is voting it;s proxy.
No effect on UPL stock price.
I will look to buy long, perhaps in Q3 of this year, at slightly lower prices. 15 ish.
As always, good luck. I hope everybody makes lots of money. I have been negative on UPL for 2 years, and it has worked out. But, it will enjoy another run up one day, and I hope to be in.
The tide will turn on natural gas and coal stocks sometime in 2013 as supply and demand fundamentals shift . Currently the hedge funds are in a selloff mode, so prices of all these stocks are way down. The hedge funds will buy back in the next 60 days and then the story will be that natural gas prices are rising. At $4 - $5 natural gas, UPL will be a hot stock.