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Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bear 3X ETF Message Board

  • jshaef1 jshaef1 Nov 15, 2012 8:48 AM Flag

    US$ weakness, etc.

    Well CL, you of course realize that Uncle Benron could have just as easily bailed out the homeowners now underwater on their mortgages, instead of his buddy bankstas--instead it is enough to destroy the middle class with rampant inflation (which somehow is NEVER reflected in government statistics), higher taxes, etc.

    I'd warn everyone to be nimble over the next few years. One thing I've noted is that there is a universal belief that interest rates, largely on the long side will not go up because it will crash the stock market if they do. It is as if the 30 year going to 4% would cause utter collapse. If you look at a chart that is the vicinity the 30 year rate has been for most of the past 5 years and there is not much that Uncle can do, if there is movement there--if anything, that would be a boon to stocks of non-dividend paying companies and commodities, as money would flee "safe" bonds, which at this level are reward free risk.

    But beware projecting any trend for too long. Most stocks are now below their 200 day average. In the past this has been a technical sell sign, but lately hasn't worked so well as such. It seems good to fade breakdowns, but it works the same way for break-ups :)

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