I've been involved in the AMRN story since the previous crash and enjoyed most of the rally from ~$1 to current $9. Pretty impressive run with a great Phase 3 progress and excellent PR. AMRN run might not be over yet, however, it's time to look at some alternative names, being at a stage where AMRN was at a price $1.
There's no need to go very far. Sofinnova (www.sofinnova.com) has quite a few interesting candidates in the portfolio and I believe TSRX (Trius Therapeutics) appears to be a next growth story - very similar to AMRN. Few reasons / similarities below:
1) No drug in the market yet, the "flagship" Torezolid Phosphate is in Phase 3 - antibiotics treating various serious skin infections - battling against Pfizer & their drug Zyvox (apparently the only comparable drug in the segment) with annual worldwide sales over $1.1bn ($700mil. in US) - similar to AMRN and their competitor Lovaza (GlaxoSmithKline) with annual sales > $1bn. Trius promotes its drug as "best in class" with multiple benefits over Zyvox.
2) Phase 3 started in August 2010. According to ClinicalTrials.gov, the phase should end in October '11.
with results planned to be presented early 2012. Will this be speeded up a bit as at AMRN?
3) 13th Jan 2011 - new role "Chief Commercial Officer" created - J.Craig Thompson has been appointed. Before joining Trius, Craig was Vice President of Marketing for Pfizer's Specialty Care Business Unit where he was directly responsible for the U.S.comerical strategy for products with over $1.5 billion in annual U.S. sales including the first generation oxazolidinone Zyvox.
- very similar to AMRN & the appointment of Mr. Zakrzewski - former Chief Operating Officer during the period when Omacor / Lovaza was successfully developed, approved, launched, and marketed for reducing very high triglyceride levels, leading to its 2007 acquisition by GlaxoSmithKline.
Current market cap is $100mil. - back in time when AMRN was around $1 per share (early 2011). I appreciate there is much more (positive) newsflow needed to match AMRN's stellar performance in the past year. Considering where the company is right now (a lot of newsflow expected within 12 months), fully funded now for a completion of the Phase 3, backed by sound pharma private equity names.... it looks like a nice growth story for 2011. Target $20 not invincible - it would still be ~$500mil. market cap company. A potential takeover (Pfizer?) should not be dismissed.