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Trius Therapeutics, AŞ Message Board

  • paxbuv paxbuv Mar 21, 2012 4:17 PM Flag

    Another alpha article - sure it will be below 4 tomorrow


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    • I went long for about 7000 shares of ARNA and was rewarded nicely today. I would like to move some proceeds into TSRX, but I feel that we're trading sideways until later this year.... sigh. My money can probably do more for me elsewhere right now.

    • Hi Mike, I agree with you on TSRX, I am sitting on about 15,000 shares. I have my TSPT also, saw you were recently in that one.

      I wanted to tell you about a small pharma powerhouse, SNTS, that has 4 marketed products which are projected to bring in $200 million in revs for 2012 with positive sales and earnings going forward (see yahoo estimates and company presentations). They are in a transition year coming off the challenge by PAR to their one-time lead product, ZEGRID (the case is under appeal now).

      They are up for PDUFA for Uceris (for UC) on OCT. 16, 2012. Sales for Uceris could reach $300 million at some point. Rhucin, a compound for treating acute HAE attacks, will finish phase 3 trials around the same time, for possible NDA submission and PDUFA in 2013. Now those are big catalysts for a small profitable pharma with nearly $1 of cash on hand trading under $6 with around 61 million outstanding shares.

      Check out the company website and some of the presentations and financials and good luck. SNTS is my largest holding.

    • mikeadd Apr 18, 2012 4:45 PM Flag

      should be some upside N near future. this is 2 sweet a deal at this 5.04 pps. Institutions just waiting till trials are closer to completion and/or beginning to invest IMO. this one is not a 1-trick pony like so many. good 4 long-term buy and hold IMO

    • Charts don't lie, big gap on ARNA chart needed to be closed in low $2's.

      TSRX already corrected, upside coming.

    • Dipyridamole is generic for persantine. There is not a combo product currently on the market, but what I was getting at is that by first glance, you can mimic the formulation by using generic glucocorticoids, prednisolone included in combo with persantine and adjust dosing based on kinetics.

      Personally, I hate when biotechs aren't inventive and basically just come out with a modified product that is already on the market and in the case of Exalgo, charge a 7500% increase in cost. There's a lot of drugs I personally feel I could combo up that are already FDA approved, but it only drives up health care costs.

      I'm still long TSRX, but recently sold my stake to move more into ARNA. ARNA seems to be having good support above $3 on lower volume. An analyst recently affirmed what I also believed and stated odds are 80% approval for ARNA and most believe a price target on approval of $10-12 per share. Trading at $3.07 now, that's nice potential even if you buy in now. I'll likely take some off the table along the way and invest back into TSRX. Only invest what you're willing to lose though!

    • Do you have the name for Synavive (prednislone 2.7 combo with dipyridamole 360 XR) already on the market or any variations of them?

      Yeah, I don't think Exalgo and the eye drop are huge for them, just smallish royalty. Synavive, is more of a catalyst.

      Pain treatments, Z160 and Z944 are the prize IMO, but it will take time to move through trials.

    • I'll definitely look into ZLCS. On first notice, a lot of their products aren't novel. I've had a few patients have trouble getting Exalgo (extended-release hydromorphone which hydromorphone is available generically and is super cheap). Depending on their dose, costs are somewhere from $1,500-2,000 per month with usually very high insurance copays which leads them back to another drug. Prednisporin and their other glucocorticoid product are again products that are already on the market and they're just making another formulation.

      Will have to do a little more research with these guys.

    • ZLCS market cap is around $140 million with about $50 million in cash. It is a little complicated to described since there are several types of products/projects (merger of companies) so it took me a while to DD. They have some partnered products in development and Exalgo on the market.

      They have 1 potential product that is an adjunct to treat RA symptoms (many patients on the new biologics still need help with steroids, but side-effects make this undesirable). The new product, Synavive, contains low dose (prednisolone and dipyridamole sustained release, the dipyridamole synergizes the prednisolone and the low dose prednisolone had no effects on BMD in a small trial). It will finish a 2B trial this summer.

      The other side of ZLCS is their ion channel modulators. These compounds appear to have less side-effects and can relieve pain better than gabapentin and morphine. ZLCS solved a serious formulation issue to provide Z160 (N-type channel) that will begin Phase 2 this summer. Z-944 (T-type channel) will have Phase 1 data this summer. Merck had a deal regarding the 1st compound worth almost 1/2 billion dollars, but couldn't find a suitable formulation (hence they returned it to ZLCS). ZLCS has solved the formulation issue with much less variability in the delivery. Try to look up their Cowen presentation from early March. These pain compounds could be very huge. If you think ARNA has potential, everyone has had pain, but not everybody has weight issues. ZLCS is a leader in this area with the science and IP. Look on the website. ZLCS was in the gutter below $1.10 and is starting to move.

    • I bought at 1.83, 1.91 and 2.01 for ARNA and hold 8200 shares. The technicals have been bullish lately and momentum is good. Price was driven down today by a downgrade to neutral (analyst reasoning was bogus) and an ADCOM discussing cardiovascular safety and whether pre/post approval trials need to be done for obesity drugs hence VVUS tanking. ARNA should have enough cardio safety data, and is the safest, but least effective. I'm straddling the fence right now as to take the profits, or ride it out a little longer.

      I've started looking at ZLCS recently, but I haven't done enough research on it. What's your brief synopsis?

      I'm hoping to add more TSRX soon and believe fair value should be $6-7 range right now, but interest is lacking as there is literally not much news to come in the near future.

    • Wow, Did you see ZLCS move today? Kitty in @ $1.09 and under last few days.

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