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Trius Therapeutics, AŞ Message Board

  • brandonuk03 brandonuk03 Jan 17, 2013 10:47 PM Flag

    My thoughts on the offering

    1) It sucks, no one likes to be diluted, but that's part of biotech and the risk you run by investing in biotech. Personally, I thought they would do an offering after phase 3 results in March being that they have an ATM. I was wrong.
    2) Most of us knew there would be an offering, we just didn't know when. Now that the offering is out of the way, plenty of investors can jump in without fear of immediate dilution again and this should provide for a nice catalyst trade.
    3) We have 2 months to recover before ESTABLISH-2 results in March. This is plenty of time.
    4) We don't know the amount being sold nor at what price. Form 424B5 uses $5.37 as a last traded price. I'd look for a pricing around $5/share. This should put a temporary floor in Trius' price. The last dilution barely affected the stock price and it recovered in the days following.
    5) Why dilute now? With the massive amount of biotech dilutions in the past few weeks, I've heard that CEO's are diluting now for fear of what may happen in Washington due to the debt ceiling crisis and being able to find capital should be face another fiasco in Washington.
    6) Depending on the amount raised, the company will be in a better position establishing good partnership deal after ESTABLISH-2 results are released. Jeff Stein has frequently said they continue to have conversations with multiple interested parties and look for an announcement after those results.
    7) Remember the studies are blinded to management. Data is being ran as we speak, so I wouldn't read anything more into this offering than management making sure they have more than adequate cash reserves to move forward.
    8) I think many people will use this as a buying opportunity. When do you think you'll get in any cheaper? As we move towards ESTABLISH-2, I don't think the price gets any cheaper.

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    • bump.

    • Well Brandon, maybe Kitty was right, I do like you for publically admitting you were wrong. It's only money right?
      I realize companies need to register shelf offerings as a means of revenue financing as needed but as you said to come out with this now when they're fully funded doesn't make sense. Wasn't there some still remaining from the previous shelf? And to further announce such a vague PO with no set value makes this whole thing even worse. It creates uncertainty and speculation not necessarily supporting SP.
      You mentioned earlier that Jeff Stein was taking public speaking & negotiating 101. So maybe a deal is in the works. Given positive clinical results creating a larger market capital is always part of a payback to the potential interested party buying in set priced shares or creating a higher required overall offer. I had no idea they could leave the price or amount out of the initial PO application.

      After waiting 4 months already another 2 really SUCKS!
      This is as bad as watching Kitty porn on PBS