I hate to say it, but Chili's will be reporting same store sales negative in the 5-7% range, On the Border will be north of 10% decreases for their first period this year. Sad but true. Look for the details on August 5. Cheers.
I have egg on my face. I misread the statement about Buca, turns out it was their revenue that was at 57.8 m for 88 restaurants. That makes me a bit of a dink. However it does not solve Brinker's problem with Mac. As was pointed out, Buca was doing about 3M AAV per unit and the company went under for .45 c per share. I say we all get together and buy Mac Grill for $10 M. We will sell the real assets and walk with a nice check.
Steve, you've made several very good points about Brinkers' current state-of-the-union.
Negative comp sales year-over-year, combined with bi-annual menu price increases does not bode well for Brinker and suggests serious internal bleeding.
If you were to re-wind and listen to several conference calls from years past, you'll hear the same story from Brinker leadership; "We're re-newing our focus on quality food and the total guest experience" Really? Shouldn't those always be the primary focuses for any restaurant organization? - Give me a break!
The technology retro will cost HUGE, as the current platform and architecture of Brinker's store system is one big antiquated, 'bolted-onto' mess which is over 20+ years old.
I wish Brinker a smooth journey, but there are some formidable head-winds, potholes, and slippery slopes which lie ahead!
"I am pretty adept at reading financial statements" - "Buca was able to get $9.7 million for 88 units that are doing about $60M annually in sales"
FYI ro, BUCA did around $240 million in annual sales, not $60! Did you really say that they were ABLE to get $9.7 million for their company?? They gave it away for .45 cents a share. You are both brilliant and relevant
Anyone can pick a point in time at which they want to look at a moving target. The comment I made was on the eve of a quarterly announcement. I missed the mark by $.02, which, if I did this for a living, would be a huge problem. I was surmising just for fun. You chose to pluck something out of the past that had nothing to do with the announcement of Jan. 23, 2008 that I referenced. I am sure you could teach me quite a bit about math. I am not that good at it. Rather than charging me, I will swap math lessons for reading lessons, since you seem to struggle with reading comprehension.
Once again, another "prediction" like your "prediction" that EAT will declare eps of .29 in January earnings release (I believe they declared .45 the next day). You may be closer to correct this time or once again completely wrong, but why phrase it like you're an insider or have insider knowledge. By your own admission, you belong to the franchise world with no business connections to Brinker. You can't be in-the-know unless you're part of the system, and that's sad but true. Cheers.
They reported .31 eps the next day. It was off by quite a bit, but it was not out of this world. Furthermore, I don't really buy the .31 number that was reported and neither does anyone else judging by the treatment of their stock. Re: the sales projection, it is based on trend watching from other concepts in the same predicament as Brinker, which is a lack of mobility and a lack of forsight.