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Alico Inc. Message Board

  • bcinvestadvisor bcinvestadvisor Jan 30, 2013 3:46 PM Flag

    Speculation

    Let me speculate a bit and create a story to fit today's action. Is it insider buyers unloading shares after a quick gain or do we have sellers who are locking in a profit worried that shares will slide back down. After this process moves along I wouldn't be surprised to see an offer in the high forties.

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    • In the fiscal years ended September 30, 2012, 2011 and 2010, we paid $2,275,000, $2,458,000 and $2,435,000 in real estate taxes, respectively. These taxes were based upon the agricultural use (“Green Belt”) values determined by the county property appraiser in which counties we own land, of $82,975,000, $92,038,000 and $93,369,000 for the years ended September 30, 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively, which differs significantly from the fair values determined by the county property appraisers of $529,542,000, $540,168,000 and $555,925,000, respectively. Changes in state law or county policy regarding the granting of agricultural classification or calculation of Green Belt values or average millage rates could significantly impact our results of operations, cash flow and financial position.

      an offer below fair value ?
      lets look for a better solution: a merger with the parent or a takeover of the parent by alico

      • 1 Reply to spiegel1960
      • Nice. The appraise value is certainly subject to debate and there certainly a conflict of interest when the county receiving the tax revenue is doing the appraising, but the value is interesting. It would not surprise me to see an offer below FMV whatever that number is. Just a year ago the company was trading at less than $200 million. How could the market be so wrong. I know it happens repeatedly that the market mis-prices assets, but that doesn't make it any easier to reconcile.

        Any offer doesn't mean that it will be the final offer or that it will not attract other bidders. A bid in the $50's would be awesome.

    • Would you guess that an offer has already been made ?

      Sentiment: Hold

 
ALCO
26.98-0.14(-0.52%)Sep 27 4:00 PMEDT