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DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) Message Board

  • big_texas_twister big_texas_twister Apr 22, 2006 11:17 AM Flag

    Listen to Dexcom Webcasts!

    Don't be deceived by unscrupulous liars. If you are a serious investor, listen to the company's webcasts. Dexcom has made it clear that they will be seeking a 7-day usage claim. Also, see message #1210 by replizer concerning this matter. The competitive advantage of potentially having a 7-day use claim represents a major trump card for Dexcom!

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    • no problem... happy to discuss which product I am purchasing but would rather not go over that reasoning on this board. Feel free to shoot me a note at davidcooper38@yahoo if you want to discuss.

    • PS. Thanks for sharing your perspective, which I value.

    • I'm not saying there isn't a need in this market. I am saying that DXCM is highly overvalued and that I don't think DXCM can ramp revenues fast enough, given the issues we've discussed, to justify a market cap of $640 million (current price + additional shares being sold in the current offering.) Device companies sell for 5x revenues or so, so the current valuation imputes revenues, on a discounted basis, of well north of $150-200 million per year--with no reimbursement, big, entrenched competitors, etc. Risk of not delivering is enormous.

      The survey is interesting, but the participants are self-selected, not randomly-selected, which creates huge bias issues. We got the 500 people who represent the target market for initial continuous glucose monitoring products: tech savvy, web-surfing, Type-1 pumpers. A market size of 500-1000 is probably about right for the first few years.

      Have you bought a continuous glucose monitor yet? If so, which brand and why?

    • Not clear that DXCM will ever get the 7-day claim. Abbott will soon be launching with a five-day claim and has the best chance of getting a replacement claim--which is the trump card that DXCM will never have because of the limitations of its technology.

      With respect to the comparison chart, don't forget the "hidden" costs that DXCM doesn't tell you about: Need to buy shower patches because their product is the only one that isn't moisture proof--a BIG deal; need to fork over $250 for a new transmitter every six months; and the need to buy a new LifeScan blood glucose testing system if you don't have one because it is the only system with which DXCM's device is compatible.

      Also, note that the ABT device provides readings every minute as opposed to every five minutes with DXCM. A key advertised feature of these devices is the ability to determine direction of glucose changes. You can do this much faster with the ABT device than the DXCM.

      DXCM is going to be a flash in a pan and people buying at anywhere near the current valuation are likely to experience severe flash burns.

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