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DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) Message Board

  • surflinkmd surflinkmd Dec 4, 2008 7:16 PM Flag


    Honestly, disclose yourself.
    Are you short or do you own shares of a competitor?
    Your posts are negative to the point of almost downright tunnel vision bashing.

    DXCM's business WILL grow.
    They DO have GREAT technology.
    CGM is proven beyond monitoring of A1C or the use of insulin pumps in the care of diabetes. Time and money savings and preventing adverse events in the hospital setting is unequaled.

    And, if JNJ or any other mid-cap or large cap health care organization wants the technology and more third party insurer contracts (which will definitely be forthcoming), they wouldn't have to buy at the current volume on the open market. They would simply buy the company outright at 10+ without batting an eye. And don't be surprised if the board of directors holds out for 20+. CGM acceptance and growth in usage as well as 7 day sensor sales are all increasing steadily.

    There has to be a reason for your bashing. Or, is it your job to warn people of bankruptcy filings based on flimsy assumptions? Or, you think angel investors are stupid for placing their well researched cash investments on microcap stocks?

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    • Former stock holder, bought around IPO for ~$11 I sold 2/3 my shares after they got FDA approval around 20/share. Was a bagholder for awhile then sold my last portion back in fall of '07 when they rallied back to 10 and change.

      Please look at my post on 11-20-08. I think as far as CGMS goes, Dexcom has the best technology available. However, it is not advanced enough for replacement claim yet. Until they have technology that can support a fingerstick replacement claim, the company will not be profitable.
      You have to remember that a replacement claim will require accuracy, precision, and reliability (think 6sigma) to be used as a indicator for an insulin dose. Medical device approval is pretty easy, you just have to show that it wont harm the body. A replacement claim for a device to test for drug administration is just as stringent as a qualifying a new drug, at least 2-3 years of clinical trials once they lock down a technology.
      Read the conference calls, they stopped R&D spending to develop that new technology cause they just dont have the money. It probably would take 2 years of development just to make a sensor that can act as a replacement, then another 2-3 years of clinical trials. They dont have cash for 3 quarters of operating cost(and they arent even spending money on R&D) let alone 4 years not to mention the clinical trials(extremely expensive) required. Granted they have development agreements so I imagine their partners will foot most of the clinical trials bills, but based on all the reports (JDR, etc..) I've read the technology in its current state will not support a replacement claim. I'm guessing they are 2 years away, could be more, before they can even start clinicals on a replacement device.

      I believe in the technology, and I think its the future of diabetes care, and I think its a billion dollar technology, DXCM just ran out of steam. Its a financial game now, the intrinsic value of the company and its technology doesnt matter. Like everyone else in this economy that is leveraged out, DXCM is facing foreclosure and will have to sell its billion dollar technology at a very very cheap price.

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