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Groupon, Inc. Message Board

  • stockplaza555 stockplaza555 Mar 10, 2012 7:51 PM Flag

    I have bunch of April calls

    I bought a bunch of April calls on GRPN - purely a speculative play.

    Reasons - a) Q1 seems to be on target to beat b) Q1 could show the profit potential in the earnings power of GRPN

    On short squeeze related to positive Q1 results - this stock could go up to $30

    Also insiders need to sell in May - so it is likely they have all good news stored up so they can sell their stock at high prices (like LNKD shareholders are doing now)!

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    • tanker, looks like it is going up today. let us see if it gaps UP open for a few more days. I am still targeting at least $30 by April 20th!

    • stock--wow, it will be the hit of the century if the calls get in the money, glad u got some profits. i'm short grpn, buying puts couple dollars below current price, buying puts on spikes. but nowhere near 500 contacts.

    • tanker - GLTU and I hope you are holding May puts or March puts!. Even if you are holding April puts, hope you come out fine!.

      India has top 1 to 2% that can be classified as FILTHY rich (kings, maharajahs life styles). And the middle class of 30% with decent incomes (rising). The other 70% live on peanuts - pennies a day!. Unfortunate, sad but mostly true. About 200M of 1B population has potential to drive eCommerce over the time there

      Ecommerce in India is like what it was in the US in 1999 if you remember those days:)

      Indian bureacracy is another story. I think GRPN bought crazeal and operating them with Indian folks

    • tanker - definitely a good discussion.
      my bet is that GRPN will be popped up by april, regardless what a retain investor thinks about it. big institutions, goldman sachs, won't give up on grpn easily .. to help them grpn will likely beat the estimates as I see they are doing well currently based on my checks of deals/goods/getaways sold ..

      But I could be wrong and lose it all .. I am fine with that ..

      Today I got both 22 and 23 april calls for 22 cents (14 + 8) over 100 contracts! All in all I have over 500 April GRPN contracts and even if I lose it all, I will be simply fine as I made good money on my Feb 25 calls (buying at 15 cents and selling at $2.50 before earnings release date!)

    • stock--cell phone angle interesting...but i lived in middle east amd more recently 2003-2005 in turkey. i think your thinking like an american. rule of law, understanding of capitalism, the social ciontract are not what they r in the west. quick example-i had to pay someone in turkey to register my car, 3 day process, multiple stamps, offices, lots of aggravation. you probably know some thais and indians. talk to them about business there. i have. the indian govt is being run from inside prison according to reuters hehe, and their beauracracy makes the byzanines look like laissez-faire capatilists. things may change. americans are generally egalitarian and generous, thats not the norm for the world. many foreign govts don't like foreign companies to be too successful. groupon steps on the wrong toes--for instance someone powerful or a low level petty govt official your in a world of hurt. just my opinion btw--whats the disposibale income in thailand and india? the cia fact book online may change your views. im just a tanker trying to make a few extra bucks. i dont know much. i'm guessing based on what i've read that grpn's going to 5, sooner or later. good luck

    • tanker- I admit it is nice to have a discussion. Thanks for sharing your European experience. I know in India snapdeal is outsmarting them but I think crazeal will pick up. Just like India went straight to Mobile phones (skipping landlines most part), they are going straight to snapdeal skipping traditional eCommerce player. The biggest player in India online is guess what - a daily deal site - snapdeal - crazeal (groupon) competitor!

    • 30 a share by April? I think the pressure of everyone knowing the market will be flooded with shares in early may will keep the price in the teens. When that hits, it's a crap shot on where the stock will land. When is the next earnings call? It just looks like there is too much downward pressure to hit 30.

    • you may be correct, but my impression from reading the recent munich conference and reuters reports about how groupon is pressuring employees, as well as, general history of this company and its past problems with the SEC is:
      grpn is desperately trying to make its q1 numbers. i suspect they are probably under enormous pressure from the initial investors. competition is coming online. i think grpn is in trouble. the appearances of the founder and ceo on tv-60 min, and in munich dont reassure me. quite the opposite. but thats me.

      i think when all is said and done there will be even more serious questions about this company going public and the way it was done.

      i think the recent fall in share price reflects what many think is a flawed business model and resulting inability to make their numbers. also rumors of customer and business dissatisfaction.
      LNKD is a different story, but understand the parallels u make.
      good luck trading, the ceo cashed out stock for 1 billion during ipo (he stated his reasons), hope u get ur billion too. just not with this trade cuz im obviously short grpn

 
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