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Groupon, Inc. Message Board

  • omnesion omnesion Dec 21, 2012 8:21 AM Flag

    Longs and Shorts ...

    Longs: Don't get all depressed and jump off of a building. She's going down, and probably going down big, but if you're really long, she'll come back up. This stock moves big on news, and the company itself isn't going anywhere. Mason will either likely be replaced next year, or he'll get it together and Groupon will be the last man standing in this niche, and she'll be trading at close to IPO prices in a year or so.

    Shorts: Enjoy.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • @omnesion, I agree with some of your thoughts. The stock IS being played with, and if you go with the flow you can make money. But the overall condition of GRPN as a viable business...I don't see it. Mason going would probably goose the stock, I agree. But the company is more like a shell looking for a business, and in that respect not a very good shell. Its too bad we can't post within these messages, I would love to put up the company Balance Sheet and quell once and for all this nonsense that this company is sitting on 1.2BB in cash with no liabilities. In actuality it's sitting on about $400MM in cash. As for the business model, I just don't see it. Could this all change--YES, but without dramatic change of the business plan and fresh credible management, this stock is doomed to failure. And that's why I take the short position, and stay out of the pops.JMHO

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 1 Reply to sjtbiz
      • I understand the cash situations and I agree with you on it. My basis for thinking that the company will stick around and be the leader in this niche is based on the idea that they do already have a lot of merchants all over the world, and that the economy will continue to "readjust" to a lower standard of living, making a site like Groupon a good way for companies to unload a lot of their overstock and even regular products and services very quickly, even if it's at a huge discount, as well as being the only way a lot of people can afford to pamper themselves (I don't think Americans will ever stop wanting to do that in my lifetime). I think they should stick to that model and not try to compete with AMZN in the direct selling/shipping arena. AMZN has a clear lead, there, but I think GRPN has a clear lead in discounting. Also, they've given the merchants they have more of an incentive to stay with them, with their new payment system. If Mason can get his stuff together, or if he's replaced by someone with experience, I believe they'll do pretty well. I don't think the daily deals niche is going anywhere. If anything, once Europe recovers a bit, it could expand even more. This is all a lot of speculation and value investor stuff ... long-term thinking. In the short-term, based on the technicals, short of some major good news, it's going to go down, almost certainly through the end of the year (fiscal cliff #$%$). I just suck at timing the market, and since I'm up, I'm going to hold. I AM thinking of hedging by writing some covered calls in the near term, though. Might end up being a long-term strategy. LOL. Good luck.

        Sentiment: Hold

    • well said.

      happy holidays to all. peace, good health and all the happiness!

      Sentiment: Hold

 
GRPN
3.84+0.12(+3.23%)Jul 25 4:00 PMEDT