I'm sitting on 80k shares (at 4.3) and not selling. Sold some covered calls (28 for September, 31-36 for November). In short term selling could be justified- the momentum could be gone any moment and 10%+ a week seems too much (especially without any real news). And valuation 2.1B also not that low....However, lets look at the bigger picture:
1. At the long run, CLDX worth, probably, at least $35-$40. So, if it gets there in 1.5 years (and not in 1.5 months as some here hope) it is still 30%+ - very respectable return.
2. Selling now with idea to buy later. Never happens. It is impossible to know what the base will be and when it will reach it. And if it goes up another $1-$2?
3. Re-deployment of funds. I'm about to get large sum from ONXX buyout and constantly looking for new potential candidates in bio space. For example IMMU (no position) has a lot of similarities with CLDX- long bench of drug candidates, no failures so far as trial goes. But, Can't make myself pay $6 for something that recently was under $3. And list goes on and on...No good companies on sale right now.
4. Coming catalysts. AM hinting very hard at every opportunity- "we can't wait to tell you about our new trial results". Since his usual motto "underpromise and overdeliver", unless he has changed his style, I' d believe we've more room to run this year. Market is really irrational and while I personally does not believe in valuation, lets say 5b (i.e. $60) before any approval of potential blockbuster, it can easily happen!
So, seems to me that selling now is leaving money on the table, and, possibly a lot of....
80k shares? :o you made my 1500 shares cry. The original 1000 shares i had made my some nice pocket change. I wonder if buying an aditional 500 shares on friday was a bad idea. Especially with whats going on right now. Maybe i should of waited.
kot...nice write-up...I would however disagree with your #1 point which seems to value CLDX in the long term at $40 +/- with $60 possible. This may indeed be correct but for something this new and a broadening pipeline CLDX could easily top 10 billion market cap some day .