The Elasticsearch/Logstash/Kibana combination also looks interesting. It was always intriguing to me how close the Kibana UI (V2) looked to Splunk.
I have used Splunk at work and made a lot of money on the long side. I am now short (yet hedged). In the near term, it may go higher as "big data" seems to be the investing flavor of the month, and Splunk appears to be one of a handful of anointed companies in this area. Yet they may have trouble maintaining their valuation long-term, because they have no "secret sauce" that can't be replicated by open-source alternatives.
The open question is whether the market itself is growing so fast that all solutions (proprietary and open source) can continue their growth rates. It gets harder for Splunk, though, as the Elasticsearch-based solutions get more mature.
SPLK is down in up market.
There are three reasons for that:
The management is #$%$ and they are busy embezzlement.
The other reason is when the management is incapable to mange. In another word, they do not know how to manage a company. The third reason can be the combination of both: #$%$ management and incompetence.