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North American Energy Partners Inc. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Apr 8, 2011 8:04 AM Flag

    Silver wheaton vs Silver

    Since I've recommended silver wheaton here for a while I think I have some responsibility in sharing my current strategy on it.

    There are a big 3 in silver PAAS, SSRI and SLW. SLW by far has had the greatest love affair with the investment community. Usually the love affair tacks on a few extra percent when silver is rising. Usually SLW rises 2 x to the price of silver. Usually SLW leads the pack of the big 3.

    SLW hasn't performed as it is supposed to, maybe because of the information lance sited about a strike.

    Since 9 days ago silver is up 8%. SLW is up maybe 3.5% during the same period but SSRI is up 20%. Those numbers don't lie. SLW is not providing two times leverage.

    SLW should open based on yesterdays closing silver price and the current 7:45am silver price at close to $1.40 higher. Although its just before 8 am the premarket has it opening up only $0.40 higher.

    I'm in it for the performance and slw hasn't performed. Slw is not rising 2 x silver, SLW is not leading the big 3, slw's love affair is there but I think because there is selling into any strength.

    Yesterday I bought half a position in a 2 x silver etf HZU in canada. I get currency appreciation from the CAN dollar, I get double leverage SLW is supposed to give me and I don't have to deal with MM's playing around with the prices and holding the price levels until they sell or buy. The etf tracks precisely.

    Silver seems to have broken out 9 days ago with my current projection to $40.92. it is too close to this price, at $40.23, to enter it here.

    The >>>DANGER<<<.

    I've participated in SLW since the beginning. When silver rises but SLW refuses, SLW usually gets destroyed when silver decides to go down. Clues to this danger are from the time of season (sell in may and go away); SLW's tripple top (one of the most bearish signs); and, SLW formed an extremely bullish pattern for breakout and it can't seem to act on this bullish formation.

    Maybe this cup and handle will pan out for SLW, I'm watching it, but at the same time, I'll have money in something else that is making me money. Sad.

    Good trading

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    • I see that in the charts,so for a trade - buy in the afternoon and sell the next morning. Yesterday all silver stocks were down or muted except paper silver - SLV. Next week earnings have to be on everyone's mind, might be a good time to play the enthusiasm.

    • I bought SLW as a trade yesterday because I liked the price action. Today, it's up less than half compared to the double etf.

      I took that 1.6% from SLW when i closed down the position and moved it over to the double etf.

      Maybe SLW will move, but I can't wait for it, I need performance now.

      The pattern in SLW is fairly consistent, in the morning it performs then mid morning its sold down. all the silver stocks have been experiencing this for a while

    • You know what is odd Chemaes, the JPM goons usually pull the price down with naked shorts this close to option expiration. That hasn't happened - at least not yet. JPM reported earnings yesterday, beat est. by 12 cents but today their stock closed down 2.77%. POS is up 4% and broke through $42 with no resistance (42.18 at this moment). Maybe JPM is going to let it run up right before the close tomorrow and then pull the rug out from under it or maybe the goons were told to stand down for now. I will be watching the last 30 minutes of trading very closely tomorrow. I`m encouraged by your positive signals though!

    • I'm a bit dangerously heavy silver because I now own the double etf and slw. Hope that price action didn't lie.

    • activity in slw has led me to buy some. I know, I know what i said about letting the dust settle.

      But the price action doesn't lie, it says buy.

    • Okay thanks, I appreciate the advise.

    • long term, yes I see silver rising but long term to me is 6 mths to a year out - not saying this is when it will happen, just defining long term.

      In PM bull and bear markets, move's up and down can last a year when examining historical charts.

      On recommendations. I post when I see something good, i'm buying, thinking of buying or I'll give info on when I've exited or target prices- sometimes.

      People here have a good eye for stocks but as always never accept anything on any of these boards with blind trust.

    • Chemaes - thanks for your post and what you say makes a lot of sense. I did not have a good feeling about it when I first heard. I have a core position and will probably let the dust settle. I might buy some Jun or July puts just as a hedge. Long term I think POS must rise don`t you? We have the San Dimas strike that is still weighing on investors minds too. I have some dry powder that I may invest in one of this boards recommendations. Which ones do you like?

    • I'm trying to deal with new trading hardware today so its hard to read and post...but this is important.

      The CEO of SLW resigned yesterday.

      I have some understanding of these things, something smells bad with Barnes resigning effective immediately and the press release not having quotes such as "he wishes to deal with health issues" or "he wishes to spend time with his family" or "pursue philanthropic endeavors". They are standard statements that must usually accompany something like this.

      as I listened to the interview on cnbc today with the new CEO, it became very clear Smallwoods (NEW ceo) investment relations manager gave strict instructions to CNBC that they were not to ask him any questions on Barnes. A lot of those fast money guys on that show are invested in SLW and they probably said ok to not asking the question so that the new CEO could calm the market so that the fast money crews money didn't take a hit. I'm pretty certain those fast money guys are liquidating into the close and they won't tell you about it until days later.

      SLW being blocked from rising when SSRI rose 20%, Barnes selling of his shares, and now his resignation don't look very good.

      Golden parachutes at that level are usually structure with several months pay being paid per years of service or a flat one years compensation. The guy was there at least 7 years. Resignations in many instances null and voids golden parachutes and why would anyone do that? Termination with cause is often replaced with the option of resignation to save face.

      I don't think anyone should own SLW right now. Silver may be live as a long, but don't play it via slw. Wait until the dust settles. Shame.

    • Thanks, I have puts and calls to play it both ways. It is the April options that concern me as we have 4 trading days before they expire. I expect the April calls to expire worthless but figure JPM will pull a hat trick and manipulate POS down by Friday. If that happens my April puts will profit. A strong move either way would be profitable but I expect it to the down side. (all IMO)

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