You're right so far, but these crazy markets make no sense, and can reverse in a big way for no apparent reason. We broke the uptrend, and I can't make up my mind whether the last couple of days are a bear flag, or the start of a new uptrend. The whole thing is ridiculous.
This may sound a little crazy (a little conspiracy theory), but the market (oil) may be temporarily propped up to help out a constituent (BofA) balance the portfolio before supporting the GS sell call. There is a concerted media focus on the fact that the winter blends of gas are being depleted (purposely) as evidence of increased consumption and greater demand for oil. If GS really dumped their long positions, then a run up to 117 would be egg on their face.
The draw in gasoline was a function of lower production, not increased demand for gasoline which has declined 6 weeks in a row. The media error/lie that lower inventory is the same as increased demand is really ticking me off. I'm leaning towards bear flag, but who knows.