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North American Energy Partners Inc. Message Board

  • h8mongrel h8mongrel Jun 13, 2011 1:21 PM Flag

    Oil Week of June 13

    MJ, are you watching the 200 DMA on USO or the 200 DMA on the actual spot price of oil? Is there even much of a difference in where the line is drawn at this point? I think I saw the 200 DMA line on USO drawn at 38.01 as of last Friday. It's really close to that point now. I'd say the odds are decent that it breaks below there this week, maybe even today if there's not that typical buying spree before the Nymex close.

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    • I don't think there is any doubt that they kick the can down the road, but looking at the way the markets are acting I'm not sure it matters whether they do or not. At this point there seems to be no doubt whatsoever that Greece will default at some point, and when that happens it is time to price it in, and it kind of looks like that is what the market plans to do. Of course, by kicking the can down the road, the market is left to guess at how bad it will be when it finally happens. Markets seldom guess optimistically, so this could wind up being much worse than if they just let Greece default now. Mr Market does not treat uncertainty kindly.

    • The one thing that politicians are good at is kicking the can down the road. I think the EU will kick that can again to give the Greeks time to wrestle with their own murky future. It will only cost them 17B. There will be a reckoning it is just a matter of when. That could the beginning of the next dip and maybe depression. The Greeks just need to accept that they will have to retire at 62 (instead of 55) like most of the rest of us. I will be lucky if I could retire at 65.

    • I was so perplexed by oil yesterday it caused me a sleepless night. This is why I'm up at 5am.

      I went out on a real limb and said oil should reach 93.3 yesterday and when it didn't I was a bit stunned. I was off by 3 enough, it went past it by a dollar and change.

      Problem is I was so frustrated by the action, I got out. This is the challenge with trading, getting the call right, sticking with the call, then applying it to get the trade right.

      Got the call right, didn't stick with it, therefore didn't achieve maximum possible gains. this hurts in this environment of hard to come by gains. I might not have gotten the call right, because at this moment 93.3 or so isn't seeming like a important resistance or support on the chart.

      I'm looking for a tradable bounce somewhere to get short again.

      I have to say I'm pretty impressed so far by how well gold and silver are holding up. Yes they have fallen, by relatively speaking they are holding their own.

      The market in general feels like there is going to be a massive, massive sell down. A capitulation move or not? I'm still 100% cash.

    • Pretty cold thoughts this late in the day, MJ. I'm looking at a 2-year Greek bond yield of 28.3%. Sweet. I've got to get me some of that! You? I'm guessing here...but I think that this is another kick-the-can drill where the EU and IMF will step in and enable things to muddle through the summer. Another delay of the day of reckoning. They only need 17B to make this happen.

      As such...Euro will rally...dollar dips...commodities continue higher.

    • Total snoozefest today. I will be curious to see if anybody wants to be long going into the weekend with the Greek situation unresolved. I personally have no plans to go long anything until the inevitable collapse from the sovereign debt crisis occurs. It's a ticking time bomb, and there is no doubt in my mind that it will explode at some point. When it does I doubt we will revisit the current market levels for a very long time.

    • went for my walk thinking I'd come back and have missed something but still the same sideways stuff.

      Haven't seen this in a long time, every single thing on my board has been confined to 2% range and i have a lot of volatile things on my board.


    • I'm going to agree with you at this point, it's taken entirely too long for me. I've taken all profits and will wait and watch or go take a walk.

    • I could see that, but not much more today. That would basically put it right on the bottom of the channel. Getting late in the day with the NYMEX close only 2 hours away, so it will require something we haven't seen in a long time, selling into the close.

    • I have $93.32 oil as my target based on current points to today.

    • It's down near the bottom of the channel I've got drawn which limits the downside in my opinion. If the situation in Greece deteriorates over the weekend those lines will mean nothing, but in the meantime I don't anticipate much progress, and we might see a bounce to the top of the channel, especially if the euro rallies.

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