Preparations for cash management by the Fed in the event of a “default” tell me there is not now, nor was there ever, any real danger of actual default. Ceiling not raised, bondholders get paid. Cuts occur elsewhere.
For an actual default on Treasuries to occur, a deliberate decision would have to be made that yes it is “unthinkable” and unconstitutional, but I am the President and here are my instructions that we will do it anyway. The possibility of the Administration enacting illegal policy is a distinctly different scenario from the lie that not raising the debt ceiling will result directly in a default. All the rest of this is pure theatre.
I've only said it about a dozen times, but I'll say it again. The US is not going to default on the debt. All this talk about a US default is absurd and ridiculous. There is plenty of money to service the debt, and they are required to do so. If you get a check from the government because you are "entitled," you are about to get a harsh lesson in how stupid it is to depend on the charity of others for your existence.