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North American Energy Partners Inc. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Aug 6, 2011 12:19 PM Flag

    Silver and SLW

    On silver:

    On august 4th I posted on the SLW board silver would first target $38.65. On a closing basis on August 4th it never went below $38.63. however, on an intraday swing it went to as low as $38.50.

    The next day it went down past $38.00 and I stated it needed to remain above $38.18 for the bulls to gain control. It got above $38.18 on a closing basis. If $38.00 gives way it will fall $1.50 at least. I have very decent positions in silver and I hedged the position, neutralizing it by 80% rather than close my long or exposing myself headed into the weekend. SIlver needs to take out $38.95 to the upside for the bulls to gain control. How I'll work the hedge is: if there is more downside, i will take the short side of the trade all the way down and close that side out, take all the profits and enter long again reducing my average cost for the ride back up. I like to think I'm nimble that way.

    The technical damage on the silver chart suggests if $38.00 is breached downside, then $36.14 is the primary target unless bulls can wrestle control back from the bears above the target given in the last paragraph. be cautioned that in 2008, this was the last time I can remember seeing such a divergence of this magnitude between gold and silver price falls. Then, silver continued falling some 30-40% while gold did relatively ok holding up. I am just having a lot of difficulty believing that with Indian Diwali and Chinese harvest beginning in about a month, any fall in PM's will have momentum. I believe PM's should start rallying next week or the week after. The contrarian view scares me and I'm aware of it, the market will try to hurt the greatest number of people and a lot of people believe what I believe.

    In closing: The star nazi (not to be confused with the soup nazi from seinfeld) is back tracking me on the SLW board. It's the same clown pretending he was a former wall street banker who never indicated what he was doing before executing a trade but always was perfect with each trade in his following posts. As you read this now, you clown, after following me to this completely different board DXO, know this, you can't compete with me. I know imitation is the greatest form of flattery, but come'on, just leave me alone now.

    I haven't said anything about this star rating thing you do for the last year or the constant complaints you've filed against me with the yahoo because, really, who cares and I have a life. obviously yahoo doesn't take you seriously because I still have the same handle. please just put me on ignore. You should talk to someone because it seems stalking me on the board has become a problem you can't control.

    To my DXO brethen, sorry to bring the board down like this. You know I try to keep it respectful. But I know this clown has been reading me on this board and he knows there are a lot of intellectuals here so, this rebuke stings more here, with an audience of his piers than on the SLW board. Now will he bite his tongue or respond..lmao. what to do? think newsnut think.

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    • Chem: I don't trade silver, however, I've watched every move you have made for some time now and I must say that you are correct on your calls a remarkable amount of the time. I can't figure out how you do it but I must give you a virtual tip of my hat. I enjoy reading your moves.

    • And you were right -- great call!

    • I gave an update after this on the SLW board. I gave a $39.17 target.

      So far silver has hit $39.14.

      If silver can move just 8 cents higher and clock $39.22 before end of day, next week looks very bullish. It already looks bullish, but it would look more bullish just 8 cents higher that the $39.14 high for the day.

    • Thanks DB.

      Lance, silver is in a in between place but more bullish than bearish to me.

      On the daily trending, it is within a larger configuration that models down to between $26.50 to $28.00 silver. Ouch, scary!

      However, looking at the shorter timed charts for advance clues to directional change we saw that move projected by the daily chart partially negated but not 100%. Keep it in the back of your mind.

      Further on Tuesday at 10 minutes to close, more confirmation negating the daily projection came then proceeding overnight silver did a major reversal and on the hourly chart and it is currently projecting up to $40.77. As long as silver remains above $38.53 the probability of moving up to $40.77 is very high. If it falls under this price, $36.67 is the target.

      Going into Friday and thin trade during an august, i don't expect much action and for it to trade either side of $38.53 by 20 pennies or so, but things don't always go as planned.

      That thrust on Tuesday was very powerful. Gold has only pulled back a few percentage points after a major margin increase. I think these things say next week is a continued move up and we are now into prime Diwali buying season. The Indians rush in and buy starting next week. The problem is Indians are price sensitive and will they turn from gold at a $1800 high and go to silver which is way under its highs? I'm still partially worried, short term, about the silver and gold divergence but not worried long term. Chinese harvest is a few weeks away and they put money in PM's. So, I'd say a floor was under here fundamentally but we need to continue to watch the charts.

      Time will tell.

    • Chem: Congratulations!

    • Three days after my previous post and we're right back to $38.64.

      What's your latest thinking chem?

    • last line...made back all the money booked as a loss and then some.

    • Hit $39.54 and pulled back..but the numbers now say $39.72 and if it hits this, well, we'll wait to make wild proclamations...

      Maybe back all the money I booked as a loss and then some.

    • Of course I made a mistake.

      I meant to write I'm pretty sure $36.67 won't be reached.

      $39.54 is the number to watch right now.

      And, silver did indeed reverse:)

    • I think what we've seen 10 mins before close and after today's close was the reversal.

      Silver goes up from here.

      I'm kicking myself for not buying at the close. I hesitated because the bid came within 18 cents of my bid and I refused to move the bid up.

      I'm pretty sure $38.67 will not be reached at all.

      I did buy slw options. I'm sort of loaded to the gills with them. If they play out, man will it be a nice christmas.

      The move from 10 mins to close to 7:00pm was extraordinary to me.

      buy tomorrow, is my call and you won't be dissappointed come sept

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