So what is our HPV vaccine worth and how will it alone affect share price?
I’ve read a lot of enthusiastic predictions on share price over the last few months, and as a long term holder of a significant number of shares, I wanted to look at potential share price based on VGX 3100 approval, vaccine pricing, and market opportunity. The following is in regard to the HPV vaccine VGX 3100 and it alone, no mention or thought to the other products in Inovio’s vast pipeline have been incorporated.
Full disclosure - I’m a pharmacist that thinks this company has incredible potential, but I have no background or experience in product pricing, no financial expertise or really anything of note that qualifies me to do this, just my own interest in the subject matter and an interest in how the numbers could work out. I’m really just doing this as a learning exercise for myself regarding a very conservative “what-if” scenario in regards to VGX 3100 alone and completely realize we are several years away from a marketable product that is generating revenue. I haven’t seen anyone else try to justify or even attempt a stock price prediction backed up with numbers so I thought I would give it a try. This is very much an over simplification as I don’t have the time or inclination to dive too deep into this analysis. The following is just for consideration and conversation.
Inovio has stated in their investor presentations that there are new cases annually of the following:
Cervical Cancer 12,357
CIN 2/3 Dysplasia 300,000-400,000
Head and Neck Cancers 20,000
Anogenital Cancer 7,931
What a #$%$ comment to make. Hpv vaccine is INO's flagship product, do you think all these scientists and 190m share holding investors are just day dreaming like you on the basis of "what if..."? I'm afraid science doesn't work like that kid. You prob wouldn't understand with the peanut sized brain of yours, so just walk away.
So that brings us to approximately 440,000 new patients annually on the high side which is the number I’m using for our calculations. This doesn’t factor in that there are 20 million patients affected with HPV currently or that 6.2 million patients become infected every year that could affect this number as well.
So say INO captures 25% of this market and we are able to vaccinate 110,000 or so patients. The pricing of the vaccine is going to be the hardest metric to be able to estimate and I really have no idea how to do that other than look at Dendreon’s cancer vaccine of around $90,000 per patient treatment cost as the absolute high end and then look at current vaccines out there which are more like commodities nowadays, like the current flu shots (about $30 cash this year) or Merck’s shingles vaccine Zostavax (about $220 cash price) for the low end. So since this is a purely speculative exercise anyways, lets use the nice round number of $1000 per vaccination, which means this is a $3000 vaccine per patient (3 doses X $1000 apiece) . There is huge room for price fluctuation here and could cost much more than this considering the therapeutic nature of the vaccine. In fact, I think this price point is vastly underpriced in view of the overall health care costs associated with these disease states, but I’m trying to be very conservative.
$3000 x 110,000= $330,000,000 annual revenue
$330M / 190M shares outstanding = approx. $1.75 earnings per share
So next, we have the PE multiple which can vary significantly. I think it’s pretty widely accepted that a PE of 20 or higher is associated with a lot of “growth” stocks so that’s what I’ll use although if you look at other growth companies like Netflix (PE multiple 273) or DDD (135), the multiple can be sky high based off future growth and revenue expectations, so again, I’m being conservative.
$1.75/share X 20 multiple= $35 share price based off VGX 3100 alone which puts us at market cap of $6.65 Billion
There you have it. You can change any one of these key numbers and come up with a drastically different share price obviously. Personally, I think the SP will be much higher than this due to the pipeline, technology, management, partnerships, etc but I wanted to run some numbers and see what it looked like. I also think many of the numbers I used are too low and we will probably be around this SP after Phase II results are announced IMO.
Also, market cap at 190M shares outstanding looks like this:
$5/share X 190M shares= $950M
$10/share X 190M shares = $1.9 Billion
$20/share X 190M shares= $3.8 Billion
$50/share X 190M shares= $9.5 Billion
$100/share X 190M shares= $19 Billion
$158/share X 190M = $30 Billion *** I believe I have read Dr. Kim say this is the market cap he believes INO will be.
Anyways, thanks for reading and I look forward to any well thought out responses.