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ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures Message Board

  • speeter1 speeter1 Mar 19, 2012 2:57 PM Flag


    mirror the SPOT VIX, OR CASH VIX?!

    Sure, the cash VIX is up fractionally today. SO WHAT! It doesn't matter! UVXY is 2x the VIX TWO MONTHS OUT.

    So pay attention to the NEXT MONTHS futures VIX and the FOLLOWING MONTHS futures VIX.

    Right now, UVXY is almost 100% in APRIL VIX, but as each day passes past this Thursday, UVXY will start to move into MAY VIX.

    Right now, the APRIL VIX is DOWN 6.71%! 6.71% TIMES TWO (2) is 13.42% which is almost inline with where UVXY is at right now (down 12.50%)

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    • I have been watching today and it tracked down almost exactly 2 x the fall in the April futures. As to why it is a wasting asset and can't be viewed like a stock, look at the following: I know this is not exact but look at the Friday close of 16.13 and today's open at 21.75, which is the April futures I believe. It's as if it started trading at 2 x the April futures today. If April falls to 16.13, that represents a 50% drop. UVXY price does not equalize to the 21.75, but keeps falling as that drops. In other words it's apples and oranges, not apples to apples.

    • the point isn't understanding how they work. The point is that nothing happened over the weekend to justify thinking volatility TWO MONTHS OUT should be 6% less then what was perceived on Friday. An aapl dividend means that much???

      In that way this instrument makes no logical sense.

      • 1 Reply to chairman5
      • hey chairman, i saw tom demark, on bloomberg last week, he had predicted S&P high about 1370, now he said figure 1411-1419, the reason he gave was a bunch of countries like the swiss and israel, are throwing alot of money into stocks, and driving up the market, the reason this market makes no sense is because its not normal for all the world to buy american stocks, so bottom line is , we are not in a logical time frame, and if you try to figure this market out, you can go broke, taking the wrong side! try to use 2% stops on trades, you can always buy back in! jmo

    • Maybe this will help you.

      Here's the summary from the yahoo page:

      UVXY Fund Summary

      The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, twice the return of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures index for a single day.

      Here is the S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures Index:^SPVXSP


    • Oh, ya, so we can just look at uvxy and place a bunch of April calls.

      Not that simple of a calc...

    • I'm buying UVXY and TVIX simply for portfolio insurance. Too bad there's not a good tool that effectively tracks the spot VIX.

      The last two years when "sell in May and go away" worked very well, I bought the VXX too early and then sold too early. Made nice gains but left too much on the table. The VIX has to spike sooner or later as there is just too much complacency in the market right now. IMO

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