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ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures Message Board

  • speeter2 speeter2 Aug 10, 2012 10:04 AM Flag

    This is why YOU LONGS really are STUPID... people really are IGNORANT and STUPID. You really are. You buy something you don't understand. You have ZERO clue how this instrument truly works. You PUMP and CHEERLEAD- yet everyday you lose. You have no idea about the tax consequences of trading this garbage. You have no idea about decay, contago, vix futures, how the VIX works, calls, puts, dilution, rollovers, and how about NEGATIVE ROLL YIELD.

    I'm a betting man. And I would bet $100,000 that 9 out of 10 of you longs couldn't answer what Negative Roll Yield is...without cheating.

    No point in arguing with longs. The fact that UVXY is down over 98% since inception, and that most longs have lost at least half of their money in this garbage, proves my point. In this case, IGNORANCE is NOT BLISS!

    Take it from me...AVOID UVXY unless your short!

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    • speeter: First of all this is not an investment. So what it does between point A and point B is irrelevant. What matters is what it does while you are holding it. I have not lost half of my investment and I am long. It is STUPID to advise someone to short this at this level. What does UVXY do when volatility increases? What does it do when it is transitioning into and in backwardation? You don't know because you have not traded UVXY in any instances like that. You should be referring people to a TVIX chart. See what happens when you short and volatility is at a bottom or the market is at a top. There has been no occasion of the market dropping more than 50 points in a day for several days in a row since UVXY was introduced. So you might say "they" won't let it crash. Fine, then advise people to go long a real stock or an Index ETF. You should be advising anyone who has been shorting UVXY to cover and secure their profits. You go ahead and keep shorting it if it makes you feel better. But before you advise others to start shorting it now, you should refer them to a chart if TVIX over the past 3 years so they can see how these cycle. You should remind them that TVIX has never reverse split, so it is a true representation of the movement. UVXY has reverse split so the chart is whacked out.

      I'm not saying buy UVXY, I'm saying it would be absolutely insane to short UVXY now. And it is. You can't guarantee it won't have a big enough run up to severely hurt someone who opens a short position now. Especially with the "short every pop mentality." That mentality could lead to a world of hurt for a short once REAL volatility and REAL selling pick up, not just this 20 point pullback crap.

      Fools short at this level.

      Good luck.

    • jondow69 Aug 10, 2012 12:18 PM Flag

      this gentleman speeter has been posting on this board for months. going back at least till JAN 2012, telling people to short this whale crap, i used to get tired of listening to this A## H##E, he told people short this junk at 32, then 30, then 28, then 26, i got sick and tired of listening to this guy Speeter , telling people not to buy, but short, then it hit me! a light bulb went off, and i realized this guy speeter , was spot on. UVXY , is a losing bet, IMO, i feel do to the law suits against TVIX, i really believe that UVXY won't reverse split! this is just my gut feeling, i mean UVXY was 32 on 3/8/12 and zingo, today trading at about $5.40. any who, good luck to you all, but take it from me, this guy speeter, is giving great advice, most people won't listen. they all hope they grab the bottom, and get on board. jmoo........................................................

      • 1 Reply to jondow69
      • The contango problem is tough. But at $5.50, I think you look at UVXY as an option on Vol. Say between now and the roll from Nov-Dec of Dec-Jan when, should VIX stay where it is today, the $5 premium is cut to $2. Call that theta??? but given where we are, and the 'issues' on the horizon, VIX could quickly get to 40 levels, and an 'event' could see 50's+ this could quickly take that price to $20. In this scenario, we risk $3 downside for $20+ upside? And odds are, with the election 2 months off, vol will rise.

    • How can anyone trust what you say when your remedial knowledge of simple grammar is so deficient?

      "...AVOID UVXY unless your short! "

      An average third grader knows that should be a contraction of the two words "you are", or "you're".

      Sad to see the unproductive name-calling.

    • demedici Aug 10, 2012 10:08 AM Flag

      Wow. You're so bright.

      I know what a negative roll yield is, and it isn't rocket science.

      And the fact that this is down 98% since inception does not qualify as proof of your point, which I assume is you should never buy this.

      That is circumstantial evidence at best. A closer look would suggest that this POS was created at the height of volatility and at the beginning of a long reversal...which itself is AT AN END!!!

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