Tos you,laughter fills my longs(look,its better then lol), I have a small position, 3,000 shares....I am prepared to loose $450 on this trade. you may be correct with your hypothesis, although I'm guessing i loose that in pre-market..best of luck.
I'm not saying I agree or disagree with you, all I am going to say is what I observed regarding $SPX, primarily.
Over the past several sessions, prior to today, there was a morning low and then it climbed through the day and usually finished with heavy buying to close flat or slightly up. Today there was another morning low and then the upward move throughout the day, except there wasn't a strong close. As a matter of fact, $SPX was ever so slightly red at 4:00 but continued to "post" until almost 4:01 and finished with and "official" flat, but to the green side, close. That tells me traders have picked up in the pattern and intend to buy the morning lows to ride up through the day. I could be wrong, but that is what it looks like. Problem with patterns is that when they are recognizable, it is usually too late to trade them. So I'm leaning toward either a gap up open and drop through the day or a down open like the past few days but with only a head fake move up. I am not saying this leads to a correction, just a pattern change.
Regarding those multiple, basically flat closes by $SPX, it does appear to be more of a stall, but not necessarily distribution, as opposed to consolidation. Usually consolidation occurs slightly below the near-term high, not at it. But these are not usual times. It could lead to an explosive up move after all. But I personally favor a move to the down side. Way too many gaps out there, including on the Spot VIX. But being OpEx week, it is possible that any big moves, up or down, might not occur until after the weekend.
I am not actively "trading" UVXY at the moment, but I still have my long position. I am, however, currently trading AAPL options and making a ton of money. I prefer to trade the securities with the large ATR's and AAPL is the current flavor. I have had four options trades on the weeklies that have produced well over 1,000% gains. That is in addition to some lesser ones and a few losers, too, but when you have the big winners, the losers are negligible because of the defined risk. As of this afternoon, I have purchased both straddles and strangles for AAPL and SPY for February. I will look at a similar setup in UVXY on Friday for UVXY.
The only sure thing is that the market is poised for either a big up move or down move sometime in the near future. If that happens, straddles and strangles will pay out rather well.
Good luck all.
Cha-ching! Thank you AAPL! Of course, it needs to hold until tomorrow, at least, but...
The $510 Straddles and $470/$550 Strangles look to have played out nicely....
Still long UVXY, but haven't been too concerned about it because of my other trades...
Good luck all.