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Jabil Circuit Inc. Message Board

  • sellputs98 sellputs98 May 31, 1998 5:09 PM Flag

    JBL broke key support?

    I am not so sure. When you look at the charts you
    will
    see some support and congestion around 34.5-35. We
    broke
    through it by only 7/16 of a point on Friday. In my
    opinion
    this is not enough to declare that support is broken.
    The real test and a better sense of direction should
    come on Monday.

    The same is true with the
    market. Even though some say that
    we broke through
    the psychologically important 8900 level
    on the
    Dow, we did it only by a fraction of a point!
    The
    Dow correction now stands at 3.3% (Most other
    indices, however, including Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have
    corrected about 8% since 4/21).

    At this juncture
    averything is possible, but I would like
    to point at two
    rather positive developments. The A/D line has
    been
    improving since Wednesday, even though the market
    is
    going down. Second, the STIX indicator, which
    measures
    oversold/overbought conditions is now flashing a possible
    market
    reversal/buy signal. The last two times it gave the buy signal
    were 4/97 and 11/97. Both times the market moved up

    significantly.

    P.S. This indicator works extremely well
    in a primary trend, but not in a bear market. In
    1990, for example, it started giving buy signals less
    than half-way into a 20% decline.

    sellputs

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Dusky4: Your comments are the most observant and prophetic of any posted here in the last year. You have a keen understanding of equity markets.

    • Steve Hyde, it means that JBL will languish for a
      period of time. How long this may be is difficult to
      call, but I reckon anywhere from 1.5 - 5 months.
      Afterwhich time JBL will undoubtedly stengthen and head
      north to the 50s (all things being equal). The market
      is telling us this is so...JBL has been particularly
      quiet and its stock price slowly decaying while the
      rest of the techs swing upwards. Why? Because
      investors, traders, everybody got it straight from the
      horse's mouth that JBL is in for at least another flat
      quarter. Consequently, the big players, the ones who
      really call the shots in the market, are looking
      elsewhere to make some money over the next few months. They
      will re-enter the JBL game in due course, but for now
      they perceive there to be better money making
      opportunities out there!

      Fundamentally, the stock looks
      solid from the perspective of "long term" (2 - 5 years)
      capital appreciation, but in the meantime, she's going to
      have a bit of a nap.

      It could get a bit rocky,
      but I would imagine that JBL shouldn't drift any
      lower than about 27 - 28.

    • Tell me what that means for JBL!!!

      (grin)

      SH

    • We've analyzed every option play, discussed every
      bit of news, disected every word from Samsones mouth.
      TA until my charts have worn out, there is nothing
      left to do. Except talk s-h-i-t about Dannyman.

    • Does anyone really think that a stock which has
      shown phenomenal growth over the past few years, is
      trading at less than twenty times earnings, and has
      strong recommendations from every analyst that rates it
      at all, is really going to tank for any length of
      time.

      This is just a downward blip and will be a distant
      memory a month from now.

      PANIC PANIC PANIC!

    • I have been screwed 2 or 3 times too. Bought more stock at 42 & 39. I wish I would have bought at 30 and sold at 44. Hope I don't have to sell to meet margin calls.

    • for adding your calm voice to this BBS. For those
      people who do not know, and take notice to what is
      written here you are the calm voice in the
      night.

      For anyone else that reads this post, I agree with
      sellputs98. And here is the data to back up my
      observations.

      First the basics, taking the latest agreed upon support
      of 35.13. Take this number times .95 which is the
      wallstreet consensus of forgiving support levels and trend
      lines (the 5% guideline). 35.13 X .95 = 33.37 Fridays
      close was 34.06 which is within 5% of 35.13 or 34.06 is
      above 33.37

      Next there is another support
      slightly below the 35.13. Like Sellputs98 also sees. It is
      about the 34.50 level (averaged) for the following
      dates.
      Check the closings all in this year "98" 1,9
      1,13 1,14 1,15 1,16 and 1,20 also check the following
      closings 4,13 4,15 4,16 4,17
      The Jan 16th (1,16)
      closing was 33.13 testing the support of 34.50. So I
      averaged to 34.50

      34.50 times .95 = 32.78 and
      still be "allowed" by wallstreeters to be the 34.50
      support level.

      Thanks again to Sellputs98, and

      Good luck to all

      • 1 Reply to stockbuddha
      • Thanks for your message. Jabil needs all kind of
        support it can get right now. Even though today's
        action
        is not very encouraging, let's hope this is
        the
        final blow. Volume is picking up. Those who
        are
        scared to sell may finally start selling. The
        sooner
        they get done, the better.

        The key is the
        overall market action. If the market goes sideways or
        down, tech stocks may sink further. On the other hand,
        if the market is going to rally this week, it will
        take the techs with it sooner or later.

    • If you're not so sure about support being broken
      wait for Monday. Techs are gonna take a dive and
      looking at the performance of JBIL for the past few weeks
      I don't see it bucking the trend. Will buy at 30 in
      a week or two

      • 1 Reply to mopsu28
      • that support has been broken. I was not sure 34
        1/16 was
        enough to declare total capitulation on
        Friday.

        I still do not think that the selloff is Jabil
        specific. All techs are in retreat. Former market leaders
        DELL and INTC set the pace. My only consolation comes
        from the fact that I sold
        over 30 naked June calls
        on DELL, AMAT, and CPQ about 2 weeks
        ago...

 
JBL
20.37-0.03(-0.15%)Jul 22 4:01 PMEDT