I am not so sure. When you look at the charts you
see some support and congestion around 34.5-35. We
through it by only 7/16 of a point on Friday. In my
this is not enough to declare that support is broken.
The real test and a better sense of direction should
come on Monday.
The same is true with the
market. Even though some say that
we broke through
the psychologically important 8900 level
Dow, we did it only by a fraction of a point!
Dow correction now stands at 3.3% (Most other
indices, however, including Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have
corrected about 8% since 4/21).
At this juncture
averything is possible, but I would like
to point at two
rather positive developments. The A/D line has
improving since Wednesday, even though the market
going down. Second, the STIX indicator, which
oversold/overbought conditions is now flashing a possible
reversal/buy signal. The last two times it gave the buy signal
were 4/97 and 11/97. Both times the market moved up
P.S. This indicator works extremely well
in a primary trend, but not in a bear market. In
1990, for example, it started giving buy signals less
than half-way into a 20% decline.
Steve Hyde, it means that JBL will languish for a
period of time. How long this may be is difficult to
call, but I reckon anywhere from 1.5 - 5 months.
Afterwhich time JBL will undoubtedly stengthen and head
north to the 50s (all things being equal). The market
is telling us this is so...JBL has been particularly
quiet and its stock price slowly decaying while the
rest of the techs swing upwards. Why? Because
investors, traders, everybody got it straight from the
horse's mouth that JBL is in for at least another flat
quarter. Consequently, the big players, the ones who
really call the shots in the market, are looking
elsewhere to make some money over the next few months. They
will re-enter the JBL game in due course, but for now
they perceive there to be better money making
opportunities out there!
Fundamentally, the stock looks
solid from the perspective of "long term" (2 - 5 years)
capital appreciation, but in the meantime, she's going to
have a bit of a nap.
It could get a bit rocky,
but I would imagine that JBL shouldn't drift any
lower than about 27 - 28.
We've analyzed every option play, discussed every
bit of news, disected every word from Samsones mouth.
TA until my charts have worn out, there is nothing
left to do. Except talk s-h-i-t about Dannyman.
Does anyone really think that a stock which has
shown phenomenal growth over the past few years, is
trading at less than twenty times earnings, and has
strong recommendations from every analyst that rates it
at all, is really going to tank for any length of
This is just a downward blip and will be a distant
memory a month from now.
PANIC PANIC PANIC!
for adding your calm voice to this BBS. For those
people who do not know, and take notice to what is
written here you are the calm voice in the
For anyone else that reads this post, I agree with
sellputs98. And here is the data to back up my
First the basics, taking the latest agreed upon support
of 35.13. Take this number times .95 which is the
wallstreet consensus of forgiving support levels and trend
lines (the 5% guideline). 35.13 X .95 = 33.37 Fridays
close was 34.06 which is within 5% of 35.13 or 34.06 is
Next there is another support
slightly below the 35.13. Like Sellputs98 also sees. It is
about the 34.50 level (averaged) for the following
Check the closings all in this year "98" 1,9
1,13 1,14 1,15 1,16 and 1,20 also check the following
closings 4,13 4,15 4,16 4,17
The Jan 16th (1,16)
closing was 33.13 testing the support of 34.50. So I
averaged to 34.50
34.50 times .95 = 32.78 and
still be "allowed" by wallstreeters to be the 34.50
Thanks again to Sellputs98, and
Good luck to all
Thanks for your message. Jabil needs all kind of
support it can get right now. Even though today's
is not very encouraging, let's hope this is
final blow. Volume is picking up. Those who
scared to sell may finally start selling. The
they get done, the better.
The key is the
overall market action. If the market goes sideways or
down, tech stocks may sink further. On the other hand,
if the market is going to rally this week, it will
take the techs with it sooner or later.
If you're not so sure about support being broken
wait for Monday. Techs are gonna take a dive and
looking at the performance of JBIL for the past few weeks
I don't see it bucking the trend. Will buy at 30 in
a week or two
that support has been broken. I was not sure 34
enough to declare total capitulation on
I still do not think that the selloff is Jabil
specific. All techs are in retreat. Former market leaders
DELL and INTC set the pace. My only consolation comes
from the fact that I sold
over 30 naked June calls
on DELL, AMAT, and CPQ about 2 weeks