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Newcastle Investment Corp. Message Board

  • marcotteadam marcotteadam Sep 12, 2011 4:14 PM Flag

    NCT in a pretty solid range

    Sold the other day at 5.19 (9/7) everything at 5.19. Stock slipped with overall market 4.54 held all day ( I know because my bids at 4.55 kept only partial filling all day) You will see this stock travel up with the overall market the rest of the week. I plan on selling again around the 5.19ish area. Just my own opinion........I still maintain that the low of 4.24 has held and will hold for the year

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    • Yes I read the article, however, it was far from informative. I'm not sure why it was posted as headline commentary...maybe it's because the author knew how to make that fancy chart. The fool article left me wanting to read more, but there wasn't squat to read. The only info in it was what was in the chart, which everyone already knew about. If a regulation was imposed that could negatively impact NCT's profitability, I have no doubt that management will make the necessary adjustments.
      "Mortgage REITs that focus on agency securities can leverage up more than their non-agency-focused counterparts can because the default risk on their investments is basically that of the federal government."
      That statement doesn't make any sense to me seeing how NCT is non-agency holding the highest leverage of all REITs. Most of NCT agreements are short term, which would allow for a more eased conversion over to agency focused entities if absolutely necessary. I guess we'll wait for the fool to post his next article with hopes it might have some real information about the regulation.

      • 1 Reply to rabies_00
      • Several things here, (1) most of NCT is not non-recourse, this is good even if it is not agency paper, (2) MF now has a ton of their posting generated by computers, not people. That's why you will find very little substance in any of their posts. (3) anything that the Obama Adm is proposing in terms of this refi's will take at least 2-3 years to become effective. Remember you have to have a lender. THERE AIN'T NO LENDERS OUT THERE THAT'S GOING TO LEND 140 PERCENT TO FOLKS WHO AREN'T PAYING THE MORTGAGE.

    • IF...NCT increases the divy mid september, I'm expecting a 25% to 50% increase. Risky business day trading this stock with a strong likely-hood of divy increase on horizon.

      • 2 Replies to rabies_00
      • You are probably right about the risk day trading this. Although I find this one as well as F5 Networks to be just about the easiest stocks to day trade lately, and why not? Why not try to pick up a few hundred more shares churning your portfolio instead of just watching it go up wondering if this will be the breakthrough or watching it go wondering if this time it breaks 4.24 (the low for the year). I do buy and hold some things (CME BLK CLF) but you gotta add a lil excitement to the trading day! BTW I am long this stock and believe in its improvement story

      • Did you see that very informative Motlry Fool article on REITs this afternnon? It was very complimentary toward Newcastle. It implies NCT is overleveraged and may be affected by some sort of new regs coming out that I have never heard of. It really ticked me off as the article was soft on specifics and I am very long NCT. Have any others on this board heard of the "new" regulation on REITs? Or was this a load of ........

    • NCT is indeed in a pretty -but no solid- range.
      I think we will get answer soon on the divy question and other paramters.

      The stock performed intraday better than the market TILL the last 3 tradinghours the stock declined more than the market did.
      The finish was oka but not remarkable.

      I EXPECT an uptrend but now because of deteriorating circumnstances it can be getting dissapointing.

      I sell tomorrow some NCT-shares and add to AMD-postion bought last week.

4.60-0.01(-0.22%)Aug 26 4:02 PMEDT