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Newcastle Investment Corp. Message Board

  • ijwbhh ijwbhh Jul 26, 2012 2:21 PM Flag

    gogo being left behind

    it looks like the pattern you were banking on isn't happening. at what point do you bite the bullet and buy back higher?

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    • Good luck, Gogo. I hear you on your trading strategy. That's not me, but I'm never good at timing.

      I'm also concerned about Q2 for many of the reasons you sited. But that said, I'm also pretty interested to see how it's trading the past few days. They sort of pre-announced a Q2 miss in their SEC filing. The key remains the overall and absolute NII number and then the quarterly update on the MSR pools. More specifically, looking for the CPR and Recapture Rates --> monthly cashflows, % payback to date and re-estimated IRR. Last quarter the upped the estimated IRR on pool 1 to 23% (above their initial 18-20% base case model).

      The delays in closing on Aurora have also been pre-announced and they probably won't have much data to share on Aug 9th. That'll probably have to wait until Q3 earnings announcement. But the management commentary and QA might be helpful. I'm also very interested to learn more about their recent retirement home investment. It's not entirely clear from their statements what the return profile will look like.

    • I am happy with my move this morning. I clearly stated that I knew it would be both lower AND higher as the day went on. I have no intention of biting the bullet anytime soon and may actually stay out of it until after earnings. In fact, I am trying to decide right now if I want to put that money to work somewhere else for awhile. Possibly RSO or NRF. Heck, I may even look at putting a little back into RAS, although with their earnings out and nothing spectacular going on there, I figure the shorts will take that one back over for a bit. Then again, I may just stay cash for now.

      • 2 Replies to gogomets13
      • <lower AND higher as the day went on>

        Kinda hard to be wrong on that one! Just a joke. Trading in and out is a very difficult game.

        In all seriousness, I think you need to accept serial so's in this company, if you want to ride it. Either they put it to good use, and I think they will, or one needs to move on to another play. I LOVE the fact that the are placing so's, and the market is absorbing them as fast as they are issued. Opportunities abound for msr purchases, and the window won't stay open forever. Action today was very positive. Good luck to all.

      • Hey Gogo I had same thought bought into Rso today expecting them to have a better than expected earnings also bought a small position in oxf 5000 shares. They are expected to announce there divy of .4375 cents and also announce there earnings release at the begining of next week. Divy is stable for rest of 2012 as management has stated on prior earnings calls and looks to be safe for all of 2013 as well.

 
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