I get the feeling that there are a lot of holders that believe they are going to get a big price jump once the spin off happens. Common sense tells me just the opposite will happen. Those that want one of the post spin entities and believe they will go up after the spin off have already bought in. So if the spin is imminent and everyone who wants in has already bought, who is left to buy AFTER the split? What you will have is a bunch of people who bought before the spit hoping to make a quick profit that want to SELL. I see a possible "sell on the news" event. I know that I will be called a basher even though I am a long term holder and love this stock. I am simply saying that things seem to be setting up for a short term disappointment for those that are looking for a quick profit. For long term holders like myself it doesn't matter.
I think the price is built in today with a current PT of $12. Post split, funds may get involved again who can own NRZ for the realestate in their portfolio. This will build a strong support base for NRZ post conversion and the price should rise until it yields 7% like its new industry piers. This is the unlocked value cause by the spin off. The short float is low in this stock today and 20+ hedge funds are in this baby. So expect mild volitility so they can make their $$ inbetween the bollinger bar ranges. Set buy ranges at 10.60,10.50,10.40, and scale in at the lows. Support at 10.50.
Lets see what the recent couple of deals will do. Remember, the $1.06 in "projected" divis was before the last couple deals. I am sure along with the earnings call and announcment of the split, they will give us some more information as to what these deals mean in terms of yield.
There is also the issue of whether NRZ will be eligible for the R2000. Remember, NCT had to be delisted from the Russel about 18 months ago due to UBIT issues. I'll bet that's kept the price down a bit over the ensuing months, as a lot of funds had to sell NCT.
I think the price is built in. I don't see I huge move either way. I am sure they already have a pricing percentage worked out for the day it happens. It looks like we have settled around $11 pretty well. My guess is we see $6.50 NRZ and $4.50 NCT or there abouts. I don't think we will see a big dip but I do think it will be really volatile for a week or so. People will be flipping from one to the otther which should equal out in pricing anyway. Long and holding. I think combined we see $20 within 18 months. JMO.