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Crosstex Energy, AŞ Message Board

  • rrb1981 rrb1981 Dec 20, 2005 7:55 PM Flag

    A statistical study

    Ok, typically I don't put any substance or value in stochastics, cup and handles and candlesticks and all of that garbage. My main premise is to find good stocks that will exhibit a lot of growth and are undervalued, mis-understood, or otherwise uncovered. So, I decided today, to deviate into the realm of statistical data, that land where numbers say what you want them to say. What I looked at was the Yorktown distributions(or disbursements, whatever you want to call them). I wanted to see how those shares were altering the regular daily volume of XTXI. Thus far I have only completed one days(11/30/2004, the first disbursement of shares by Yorktown, at least to my knowledge) worth of data. What I did was download all of the daily volumes into a spreadsheet, and I got the average trading volume from the IPO till 11/29/2004. I threw out the IPO date because I felt that it skewed the average too much(a statistical outlier). What I got without the IPO day, was an average volume of about 24729 shares per day. Note, if I had included the IPO day, the average goes to around 35,000 shares per day. What I wanted to see was how long it takes the market to soak up the additional shares. I know that Yorktown disbursed 727475 shares(I also know that some of these shares are held by Yorktown principals and never hit the market, but I can't really account for those, so I assume that all of them are sold). So, I figured the best way was to see how many days of daily volume it would take to add up to that 727K shares. I also made this a net number by subtracting the average daily volume from this number(i.e., the volume that probably would have occured had no disbursement taken place). What I found was that it took roughly 37 days to absorb the additional shares. What is more interesting is that this 37 days comes within 3 or 4 days of the next disbursement (1/25/2005). I am not sure if this means anything because I have yet to carry out this process for the other days, and for that matter, I am not sure what average volume to use as the original average is now no longer acceptable to use after the additional slug of shares has hit the market and what fraction of those will be constantly being churned. It is, simply, food for thought. I guess, one could