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Crosstex Energy, AŞ Message Board

  • If XTXI is only deserving of a $66 price on a $3.00 dividend, is KMI worthy of a $93 price on a projected $3.50 dividend, is KMI overvalued by your metrics? That is a yield of 3.7%. It seems like XTXI would get at least a 4.00% yield rather than a 4.5% yield. A 4.0% yield would be $75 bucks/share.

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    • I cannot say that XTXI should have the same multiple as KMI, more or less. They are two different companies. My thesis is also that the multiple is not linked to the distro, somewhat on the growth history and more on the growth prospects.

      Let's agree that Kinder is one-of-a-kind. He is consistently 2-3 years ahead of the curve. Thus, he is able to smell opportunities long before others and pay lower multiples as well as have the pick of the litter.

      KMP's GP tax is (a holly cow!) 74+% and equity cost is 11.5% and he's still able to grow the darn thing. I don't know how he does it and I am in very good company. He is trully awesome.

      Duncan is much more straightforward. He understands financing and he plays with it like a fiddler, but his investments are more predictable and the only bet is the deep gulf. He has become the master of the deep gulf and I am willing to bet on the future of the deep gulf with him.

      • 2 Replies to geoequities
      • I agree that Kinder and Duncan are in a league of their own, and Duncan is ahead of Kinder, although Duncan started many years before Kinder did (Duncan's Enterprise IPO'd around 1998, but he had been building that company for 30 years whereas Kinder left Enron around 1997, bought the GP of Enron Liquids Pipeline along with Bill Morgan and some private equity from what is now First Union (I think that was the bank). Kinder swallowed Sante Fe LP and hasn't ever looked back. His moves into tertiary recovery look brilliant now.

      • Your GP tax is so far off, I have no clue what you are using to calculate it. Are you including the cash that they get from the KMP and KMR units that KMI owns. Keep in mind, logically, the GP take can never exceed 50% of all the cash produced by the MLP, because the highest tier of the incentive distribution rights is 50%. The lower tiers are less than 50% which brigns the total take down. Now, if you add in the cash they get from the LP units, the total Take (not tax) can exceed 50%. XTXI takes about 75% of all cash produced by XTEX, but that is because they own 10 million of the 26 million XTEX units outstanding. I highly suggest you look at your GP tax model. You are clearly a smart guy as evidenced by your knowledge of splits, GP MLP relationship etc, if you look hard enough, you will see, that the tax can never be more than 50%, it isn't mathematically possible, ever, unless you distort the definition of GP Tax to be GP Take.