Excluding Rosenbergs severence package in Q1-00 here's some past history on net profit margins which will be used to establish a trend that I'll extrapolate into the future to calculate profit and EPS.
For the time being this is my model. I'm allowing for modest improvement in margins and an increasing number of shares due to stock options. I 'm forecasting Q2 at .62 and 2000 year end earnings at 2.66. I'm out ahead of our analyst on this one. I'll see how I fare compared to him over the course of the year. Apply whatever P/E you want to these numbers. All I can say is it's worth a second mortgage on your house to invest in this baby. 2.66 times 25 puts us at $67 by the end of year!
First of all,I'd like to commend you on your contribution,as it involved a lot of time.I extrapolated as well,and our figures are extremely similar,in fact nearly identical in their conclusions.I've been holding since Feb 1,and am extremely satisfied with DIO. Here's a question for you(or anyone else who may be able to shed some light).These estimates of forward numbers are based on Diodes-China expansion.I'm wondering...Do you know what percentage of DIO's revenues come from Diodes China vs Diodes Taiwan? I ask this because I'm wondering if our revenue/EPS spreadsheets may be failing to include this breakdown in our calculations.I'm hoping that someone might have more info than I presently do. Thanks,
Go to Diodes home page on the web, proceed to Investor Relations and then look at the companies 10K and 10Q. The 1998 10K includes a note 11 - Segment Info beginning on page 32 with a detailed breakdown of the "Consolidated Sales" between Diodes-U.S., Diodes-China and Diodes-Taiwan. I'm not sure I totally understand the relationship between them and what they mean. However, it would seem to suggest that the majority of sales came from Diodes-Taiwan through 1998 by an overwhelming amount. I suspect that's changing due to the China Expansion that's underway. Anyway check it out and tell me what you think.