Clemens is a jerk and Pat Bradley showed ass
instead of class. We need a larger spread to make the
players pay and maybe think about getting caught on the
wrong side. Excuse me what was I talking about
Kornokovia caused part of my bran to shut down. Ok lets see
oh yea, if you look at the one day charts you can
see how we are being played. Did I mention spread?
We've been getting a spike up every morning and a
little bump up at the close. People trying to get in
position for the morning pop are buying at the end of the
day. This morning no spike up but those players still
made out. I'm expecting another nice move up at the
end of the day. What I really like Kornhigher volume,
higher volume higher prices. I hope all those morning
players are thinking about getting in position for
it appears that both intl rectifiers and diodes
are gaining share at on semiconductors expense.
on semi seems to be focusing on ic's probably
limiting capacity additions in older products.
I am not
What is going on with KEM, VSH,
National, etc are very important to DIOD right now. I
believe all discussion has been related to how
developments and announcements affect DIOD.
related discussion is apropos, then it is appropriate
You have hit on the exact issue that
concerns me. What we have right now is an abnormal
situation where demand far outstrips supply in a few select
markets. For example, capacitors are in so much demand
that KEM could significantly RAISE prices on its
products (resulting in 1000% profit increase). Please note
that this is an ABNORMAL situation. Once supply comes
back in demand the price increase will be reversed.
KEM is benefiting from the fact this capacity has not
been increasing in the capacitor industry fast enough
- a problem that Diodes does NOT have since it is
one of the catalysts of increasing capacity in its
The payoff of each strategy depends heavily on what
happens with demand. If it slacks off, Diodes is left
with excess capacity forcing it to slash prices to
maintain volume (operating efficiency). However, if KEM
doesn't increase capacity and demand stays high, a
competitor will eventually increase capacity to capture more
market share. Abnormally high profits will attract
Unfortunately, as soon as
one player starts adding capacity, you get the
classic "Prisoner's Delimma" situation where YOU must add
capacity so that you don't lose market
I am glad we are in agreement.
I greatly appreciated your post and frank
assesments of potential scenarios. I am very excited about
the direction Chen is continuing to take with this
company and am looking forward to the conference
As you pointed out, capacity vs. demand is always a
major key. With respect to this, we are at the mercy of
the IRFs of the world. This cannot be avoided.
However, DIOD has strung together 41 consecutive
profitible quarters despite the many periods of mayhem the
industry has undergone. DIOD is quite special in this
Remember that Chen plans to make us the Tiger Woods of
cockroaches and has the proven track record to do it
I think we are both quite interested in hearing
what Chen has to say. Thanks for your down-to-earth,
rock solid input on the board.
what we need to understand about the capacity
that diodes is adding is whether it really will get
realize that when a shortage is
happening everyone adds capacity expecting their customers
who request it to fill it up.
slows, capacity goes unfilled. customers are very rarely
held liable for their forecasts.
the trick is
to add the right amount so that you don't have to
lower prices to fill it.
this is very hard to
determine. e.g. to get an insight into what all the semi
companies are adding, especially in discretes is virtually
thats why is there is so much uncertainty when business
Ah, another immature basher.
funny how some people are ignorant to the fact that
studying and following other stocks (whether you own them
or not) can have a significant impact on the stocks
that *are* important to you.
Keep throwing the
I do believe that diodes can and will gain market
share. What we need to see is more announcements on
industry leading new products and growth rates exceeding
competition. that is what will drive market share gains, along
with being recognized as a low cost provider, e.g.
more investment in china.
The problem to watch
for is too much capacity being added in the industry
by the international rectifiers and on
semiconductors along with diodes and a few others. as long as no
one goes crazy adding capacity then everyone makes
when supply exceeds demand in this
industry it gets ugly. margins deteriorate fairly rapidly.