I am happy to see the streak of profitability continue although $.06 is a retreat back to pre-'99. However, continued profitability is a true differentiator for this company. I'd expect Q2 to be just as challenging. Hopefully the big turnaround in orders, profitability and stock price will be some time between Q2 numbers and Q3 end(July 1-Sept 30).
Hopefully, instead of the classical summer-slump in semis we will see a summer-recovery, at least for discretes. This one still requires patience of steel for long term holder (but there will be rewards).
Best of Luck All,
Just to make the point more clear- The developer is hoping to get $700,000/house. The market is falling rapidly. The buyers were supposed to be stock option lottery winners. They are now just a memory. The real effects of the current downturn have not really been fully realized. There is quite a bit of leveling off yet to be felt. The Tulip Mania is over. Where it all levels off is yet to be determined.
Don't be mislead by misreading of signs. 250 yds from my house there are home building contractors working until 1:00 AM each night. On my nightly walks I have asked these guys why they are working so late puting in drywall or laying down flooring at such an ungodly hour for the typical home building contracter.
It seems that these last remaining acres of land in Silicon Valley were bought from the orchard owner (Silicon Valley was once all orchard) at fair market value late last year. The initial (almost guaranteed) plan at the time was to get the small lot luxury houses built and sold for $1,200,000 a piece. However, the purchaser has realized times have changed a bit. They are working their flesh to the bones to get these houses done and sold for $700K now (a 40%+ drop). Granted, prices were high here. However, this isolated ancetode is endemic to the entire general downturn from the high flying stock market to what we have today. The cream at the top has soured. We are back to gold old fasioned W. Buffet type investing. Don't think otherwise or you will be slaughered along with the rest of the cattle.
There will always be opportunities. The semi sector is one such opportunity. If you play the cycles correctly and with the right company, your returns will be far greater than those found with a typical S&P500 index fund investment. I believe DIOD will be such a glossy shining outperformer. Personally, I do not believe the huge gains are here just yet. Patience is the word of the hour just now.
Some thing you can sink your teeth into. I watch and trade off and on TKCI. TKCI is dumping 2 million shares on the open market at a fixed price of $16 per shr. Why would investors buy those shares? Why would LONGS sit there and not think this will cause a dilution of price after the 2m dump is completed? What are the chances of me buy at $12 in the near future? Why are the people on that bb not even talking about this? All comments welcome, I can take it
about what I see in my travels.Heathro is a fancy shmancy golf course with homes being built. The Grasslands is also a great place with homes being built. Westchase a nice place with a championship golf course and plenty of homes under construction. Lake Jovita a Tom Lemon designed championship quality golf course with plenty of homes under construction. The Eagles is a 36 hole layout with plenty of homes under construction. Silverthorne is another beautiful golf course in which you can hear hammers and skilsaws on every hole. People building, people buying, banks lending and the Whiner knows every inch of the rough.
what I meant is we need to see how their q1 went and what their outlook is. if they are profitable lets say 4 to 5 cents earnings per share, and q2 is not a disaster the stock should jump.
I think they are pretty well managed, so I am holding on.
I know I'm not changing any thing. A crank letter every now and then makes me feel better.
When I get in the mood those damn ritz people are next, you can't buy a ritz cracker. The ritz people replaced a great product with a cheap imitation.
I really believe that the chip stocks, especially equipment, many of the software stocks, and the telecom stocks have gotten ahead of themselves. the price wars in p.c.s, the discounting in autos, is only the beginning not the end.
I think we will see 1800 in july after 2 more bad months of unemployment news, earnings warnings, productivity decreases, energy price problems, income drops, and consumer confidence problems.
investing is going to be very challenging.
best plays imo are turnarounds and some small caps. Stay out of large cap tech growth stocks. It appears they are a bear trap. some very good short opportunities will present themselves by the end of may.
Sticking with rwy and brio for turnarounds. fbce looks good. diodes and kem need to get the ball rolling by the end of q2 or its hasta la huega. the story is out on cats.
reits look like a good place to spend q3, collecting dividends and sipping cold brewskies. keep a bunch of cash on hand and buy on the real dips, and sell into rallies.
real dips have oracle at 14, dell at 22, nokia at 26, intel at 25.