don't be surprised if amtg dosen't announce an increase in the divy because of the mandatory 90% rule and they will most likely make payout before year end to beat tax increase, ceo owns quite a bit of stock, just took possesion of more the end of nov.
special dividends can be tricky. I think time is on management's side as they have 12 months from a certain timepoint [end of fiscal year?] for satisfying the 90% rule. I do not know the parameters around earnings and that certain timepoint. So conceivably the satisfaction does not have to be until dec 2013, and in that likelyhood thy might do modest div increases each quarter and use undistributed income to ameliorate negative events. If we do get a special distribution, as telegraphed by the last div increase wording, then things look bullish for 2013.
I agree, I don't know timeline for distributing 90% , but they may also be thinking of higher taxes next year, insiders have been buying, so may be even more incentive, should know more in the next week.