"They didn't lose a contract they already had, there will be others"
That is exactly what someone who works at a large fund would say. They want everyone else to stay in or buy the stock so they can get out.
True they may not have lost a current contract but they also didn't win a future one. One that the stock price was anticipating with its run from $20 to $47. Did you see their results for Q2? They weren't pretty. And now they don't have the new growth to turn things around which will make their stocks value somewhere around the $20 mark.
So of course the funds will trick small investors into thinking its a good deal now. How else can they get out with any of their investment before Navastar starts losing more money.
Most of the run up from the $20's to the $40's was due to MRAP I, not the anticipated M-ATV. The $40 range was well established well before they ever announced an M-ATV competition.
Sustaining the current price levels without M-ATV will be a hard sell and difficult for NAV to do. That I do agree with. Even to a NAV cheerleader like me, the importance of losing M-ATV is not lost to most of us who follow the stock and company. And I do agree, if the price had shot up like OSK's did tonight, then clearly NAV was hedging on winning, and since it sank instead, I'm having a hard time believing that it would have "no effect".
But what are you going to do? It's a risk/reward scenario each time you play. Can't win if you don't play right?
I'm still long on NAV, I think they'll rebound when the rest of the economy does. NAV is still doing no worse than its non-military competitors and better than some.
And they still haven't asked for any TARP money!!!