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  • oscoutspa oscoutspa Jan 30, 2013 7:25 PM Flag

    Management Presentation 2013 v3 Jan 30, 2013

    New management presentation at company web site. A quick look found the following:
    * onshore gas well total 26 v 24 in last report, 65% cummulative sucess rate vs previous 70%
    * new wells under way: 3 onshore gas, OGX-106 in BM-C-37, TBMT-8H (this is the previously reported 4th production well in TM field)
    * OGX-104 shows as still underway but now reporting 35 meter find in Santonian
    * OGX-102, onshore gas, 3 meters Devonian
    * BAD NEWS: OGX-101,103 onshore dry holes, OGX-99 in BM-C-37 dry hole (aka a duster)

    Note: no new production data, likely this will come as promised in first part of February

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    • This post was made on the InfoMoney OGX forum in Brazil by a poster named Claudio66 who is one of the more level-headed folks on there. Not endorsing or opposing anything in it but thought it worth sharing his perspective (note, auto-translated):

      "It may even be that the market has reacted badly to the well dry of Cozumel. But try to give below a more general overview (big picture) of recent developments in oil exploration by OGX. (Add-on a little information that the PokerStars came on oil found in Viedma.)

      APIMEC presentation in 12/11/2012 ( Presentation APIMEC 2012), there were 5 wells in progress:
      -OGX-99 (BM-C-37) and OGX-100 (BM-C-38),
      -OGX-94 (MM-S-58), in Santos
      -OGX-96 (PN-T-50) and OGX-98 (PN-T-68), Parnaíba (gas)

      Of these the OGX found oil in the OGX-100 and OGX-94. Furthermore, after this presentation, began drilling the OGX-104 (BM-C-37) and also found oil. The information is on pages 41 and 48 of the institutional presentation disclosed yesterday, 1/30/2013. (Institutional Presentation )

      I.e. 4 oil wells whose results were revealed, since 12/11/2012, found oil in 3, with 75% success rate. The two gas wells were dry.

      In the presentation of the results of the 3T12 (3T12 Results Presentation), had been offered the potential for each well (the values refer to the 70% of participation of OGX):
      Cozumel (OGX-99) = 146-189 mboe
      Tulum (OGX-104) = 136-196 mboe
      Cancun = 129-206 mboe
      Viedma (OGX-100) = 172-219 mboe
      Cotopaxi (OGX-106) = 21-28 mboe
      total = 603-837 mboe

      Tulum + Viedma represent more than half of this potential (and Cancun has no result). Only with Tulum and Viedma OGX transforms into contingent resources 400 mboe. It is good to remember that certification of D & M were 3 Billion boe of contingent resources. It is good to remember that the stock price does not reflect even the contingent resources of 3 Billion boe. And since the report from D & M in April 2011 to OGX has found more oil, particularly in Santos.

      By the way, the OGX-94, in the prospectus of Curitiba, in Santos, also succeeded, in a block (BM-S-58) where the 3 previous wells had only obtained success in 1. With this success rate on the block over 33% to 50%. Each time more Saints will have to receive some value in the market. (Haven't seen a bill yet to assign value to OGX Santos fields.)

      I think I joined market mood, due to contraction of u.s. GDP in 4T12, with the postponement of entry into operation of uninas of MPX in Maranhão (which basically means reducing recites short-term OGX) and the dry well of Cozumel weighed on bear parade. But I don't see that with the information revealed the value of OGX has fallen because there was also good news (that even made the action up in the morning, since the revelation of the well of Tulum was made earlier, based on ANP release).

      My great fear is that already have inside information about a disappointing 3rd production well (below 7 kbpd). Let's hope that is not so. (But in June 2012, the price dropped by 15% before being unveiled disappointing 5 kbpd flow by well.)"

    • How come they have dry holes and report 100% success rate? This is bizarre.