All the SPO's by the REIT's have been below the market share price on the date of the announcement. That drives the share price down temporarily. CIM has a scheduled earnings call early in Feb 2011. Will be interesting to see if they announce a SPO before or after the earnings call. I own CIM and some AGNC. I like both for different reasons. Both will do better if interest rate increase than NLY. AGNC is federally guaranteed loans like NLY but appears will take less of a hit than NLY if interest rates increase. CIM may "increase" earnings if interest rates increase although with CIM, not federally guaranteed loans. CIM is riskier than NLY and AGNC, but better positioned if interest rates increase barring too many defaults. With AGNC's much higher dividend rate than NLY, less of a hit if both were to drop dividend payouts slightly. For these reasons CIM and AGNC are my favorite REIT's.
What I wonder is what are all these companies (AGNC, NLY, HTS) buying with the proceeds from their recent SDOs?
Eventually the "bargains" will dry up and it will cost more to buy higher quality. Is it subordinated notes? Are they buying trash from Citi and Bank of America?
I agree that we won't see 3.85 again "unless" earnings declines. Assuming no earnings decline, guessing 3.95-4.05 range but probably more like 3.95-4.00. Don't lose out over a penny or two. Happened to me before which taught me a lesson.
About right, we are overdue.
My guess, is the Announcement will be the day after stock rises for no apparent reason to above $4.25. Then the offering price will be about $3.99 to $4.05?