I looked at the Fidelity web, on CIM technical it signaled a bullish something like a triple bottom (or another technical jarjon), right on Nov. 1st. So it was a bull run of sorts. Short term though, no particular reason but the price had been quite low of late and a bounce is not a whole lot of surprise
If NLY is buying Crexus, perhaps people are thinking that it will take another wad of excess cash and buy CIM. In consideration in ongoing changes to the CMBS and RMBS markets, both companies make an excellent addition to NLY.
Although purchase by NLY of CIM makes sense, they may be prevented from doing so until the financial reports are issued, which takes us into early 2013. Also, a purchase far below the most recent stock offering that takes advantage of the currently depressed price would not be thought of well by the markets.
That having been said, if NLY is willing to add Crexus to its balance sheet and depart from being a pure agency RMBS play, a purchase of CIM at the right time and at about $3.50 is quite reasonable. NLY now has excess cash resulting from payments on agency RMBS during a time that it doesn't want to reinvest in the same at high prices resulting from QE3. Purchase of Crexus gives NLY a great investment vehicle for those dollars. CIM does the same by adding non-agency RMBS investment vehicles to NLY during a time that such investments are likely to be quite profitable.
NLY has about $15 billion in equity, and total assets of around $100 billion. Generating the cash to purchase Crexus, and later CIM, would be quite easy.