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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

  • mthiker2004 mthiker2004 Mar 8, 2010 2:07 PM Flag

    Priced to perfection?

    I'm not complaining, but CODI is so overbought on the day before earnings, I'm wondering if it's "priced to perfection?" IMO, CODI will beat by a few cents top and bottom lines, but if it misses tomorrow ... Of course, it could be a lack of sellers and an unwillingness of the MMs to get in front of the price momentum.


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    • You know what I noticed that was weird/almost criminal...

      5-Mar-10 DAY C SEAN
      Other 39,047 Indirect Purchase at $0 per share. 5-Mar-10 DAY C SEAN
      Other 39,047 Direct Purchase at $0 per share.

    • you called it. i shifted my trades around for too much. should have settled for the high 14's or small 15's what a weird trading range today. almost looks criminal?

    • BDC's and MLP's do not fit the cookie cutter world of accounting. bunch of idiots that don't do the due dili get shake out fever and bail.

    • I think we almost HAVE TO beat by atleast a few cents and have great news for rev going forward or we will drop about 5% or so atleast.

      • 1 Reply to lneedlesb
      • I'm guessing with the recent s/p run-up, absent inside information that might be disclosed tomorrow, we will see a modest pullback in CODI. I agree a distribution increase is not in the cards until CAD again exceeds the distribution. (Paying distributions from cap gains is okay for a few quarters, but I don't see mgmt doing that indefinitely. If they do, then I'm probably going to trim some holdings. But my guess is, we will cover the distribution this quarter and mostly do so going forward, absent another meltdown.) I don't see a sale in this economy. An acquisition ... well, as you know, I've been "predicting" an acquisition since the secondary last spring. So much for my ability to predict anything!

        GLTA and hold onto your hats in the morning!

    • What does the crystal ball put the price action at if they announce a purchase, or sale of a business, or the raising of the distribution, or both?

      • 1 Reply to skierxtrem3
      • There is no way they can raise the distribution. Their payout ratio has been over 100% the past few quarters. If anything, they need to cut the dividend.

        Very profitable sale of a business seems unlikely given the depressed prices. Acquisition seems much more likely since that was the goal 7-8 months ago when they issued more stock at ~$9 a share.

        CODI has had a huge run up over the past month, over $2.50 a share on low to average volume. They're going to have to have some news to back this run-up. "Buy on anticipation, sell on the news."

        I sold out today when the market opened at $14.49. Too late to sell now if you have any, if earnings are lackluster, seems like you should get out fast before slide back to $12-$13.

16.95-0.07(-0.41%)4:02 PMEDT