bocamp - what are you reading into SG&A going forward with respect to 2012 numbers released and the discussion in the 10K. it is hard comparing apples to apples due to the split year when they changed fiscal year to coincide with the calendar year.
based on the discussion provided within, and Ma's prepared remarks on the CC - do you think SG&A will be above, below, or even with 2012?
i am trying to get an idea of where net income could conceivably end up for 2013. revenues should be $5-9MM higher than 2012. i am basing this on an additional $4-6 of backloaded commission revenues occurring in 4Q13. since they are going to a target more consistent with the 2011 model - they should be able to hit the target even if they are flat year over year from 2012. they actually grew the revenues on the GEHC in 2012 - just not enough to meet the aggressive target and thus the backloaded commissions did not occur and dropped the total revenues.
BIOX and EECP should provide $1.5-3.5MM of additional revenues. They have grown that segment substantially the last 4 quarters and seem to be hitting stride. even at a 30% growth clip - that will provide several million increase in revenue.
if cost of revenue stays consistent on a proportional basis, the big question is SG&A. i am reading the 10K as the majority of the cost increase for GEHC will have occurred in 2012 and some spill over into 2013 in the first and maybe second quarter (for new hired towards the end of the year). if that assumption is correct, and R&D does not jump more than $0.5MM - we should be looking at a net income of $3-4MM which would be consistent with 2011 numbers. if GEHC revenues grow instead of stay flat, and EECP sales continue to increase on the global front while the domestic market waits on CMS - this could add another $1-2MM of revenue and $0.5 to net income.
In hindsight, a great question for ma would have been to comment on SG&A. That's a big increase; almost 6 million. Some of that should not be recurring (reimbursement consulting-friggin Rios) or should decrease. But its hard to say with most related to extension of GEHC; and that's a hard one to figure. I would imagine that is why vaso doesn't get the value it should cause that area is so unpredictable. But, FGE should really start to kick in on revs, but again at what cost.
I think we will need the next Q to get some real clarity, but price more than discounts uncertainty. And many things could happen before then.
at 162MM shares outstanding - $4MM in net income at a 10 PE suggests a stock price of $0.84. if a growth multiple is applied (which should be based on the 30-50% growth and expected to accelerate globally), this would provide stock price in a 2-3x multiple of $0.84.
this is the reason i am bullish on this stock. this isn't even pie in the sky assuming fundamental change with CMS.
big question on 2013 is SG&A for net income. i think the revenues will be there.
buyback is going to continue to be anemic if volume isnt spurred somewhere else. at 9K shares at 1:26 - the company will be able to buy 3K shares a days end...
i am still not getting orders filled under the ASK. not ready to start picking off the ASK again. i assume others are in the same boat.