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Global Ship Lease, Inc. Message Board

  • coursonc coursonc Jun 7, 2011 1:26 AM Flag

    From $7.50 to $5

    Down $2.50 from the top late Feb. Some of the nephritic DDCs have now 'paid' 33% for their evil dividend anticipation chasing ways.

    I guess its similar to CPLP in that regard, lol. They never learn.


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    • I started my rebuying program of/in GSL in the low $4s, second buy at $3.70, etc with a larger aggressive double buy recently at $1.79. However, I'm interested to know if Bearle actually held ALL shares all the way down (rather than selling) or not, as he is one of the bigger individual (Yeah Cale, I'm ignoring you, and your Tarpon 'folio Floridian flora and fauna fish buddies, lol) holders here, as he had 167K shares, and was valued over $1M when was $7+. Personally, I think that is too much exposure to a 'one trick pony' company like GSL, but what do I know, lol. I mean, heck, I'm already eyeballing (Rocky would say licking obsidian) my 20% two week gains on the most recent low-ball grabs, because I feel I am overweight not just in GSL, but shipping sector overall.
      So, the DDCs have left the building. Generally, I feel that's a good thing. Costco is always easier on my wallet compared to Macys, except I sure do like the pretty counter girl there, I just can't figure out what she really DOES all day. Must take at least an hour just to put on her lipstick. Must be nice to get paid doing nothing just to look pretty and smell good. Kinda like GSL stock now. Minus the lipstick, lol.


      • 2 Replies to coursonc
      • Hey Cours,

        Yes, still here with a bloated position that I expect to hold for the foreseeable future. I did some minor selling at 6.00 and again at 5.00 to address some real estate opportunities that presented themselves, bought some back in the 4.00s and pretty much bought all original shares back at 2.15-2.25 and then a "final" recent large buyback at 1.85. Total stake spread throughout a number of accounts is ~205K shares. Yes, in retrospect I should have followed your sagacious advice and dumped the entire stake at 7.00. I did take some profits but clearly not enough given the precipitous drop. Considering the gains recognized though, my average cost is right at $2.00 and I remain positive about that. I still believe in my original thesis for GSL and am content to wait another few years to see it play out. I will say that another small cap, WPX now on the Toronto exchange but previously on the Canadian venture exchange) has kept those GSL missed profits from causing too much angina. I took a major stake at about .50 and sold at 1.50 and then jumped again after a drop back to .73. It is now at 1.27 and they recently published a very positive pre-feasibility scoping study. I mentioned this on this board about a year ago and I still think it is a worthy look. I look for it to be taken out by one of the big boys within a year or two at between 3 and 4 dollars Canadian. I also had a serendipitous gain with SFL which I had originally bought under ~6 and sold in the low 20s before the FRO counterparty issue took on wings. I recently bought a stake back at 10.35. Of course, I had some not shabby losses on TNK, TNP and MT to help offset those gains. Bottom line is that I plan to stick with Ian and GSL, hope that CGM holds its own through the lumpy global growth story and see a return to the 7.00 share level. At that time, I'll probably pull back to about half the current stake and relax with a nice divy down at Panama City Beach. Cheers!

      • jdfunnell Dec 2, 2011 10:52 PM Flag

        Bearle can speak for himself. I was feeling like an idiot at the beginning of this year, selling at $5 and then watching it run in the spring.

        I dialed out as the year went on, but have been adding recently, at first to my chagrin and in the past few days it's looking better. I'm even-to-down on the re-up.

        You were touting FRO at circa $8.50 a few months back. How's that workin' out?..............Dave

    • LMAO, that was a quick 10% on bottom feeding, in and out.

    • As they say, Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

    • Oh Cours, I never move "nonchalantly" when it comes to money. I've worked way too hard for that! I have reached a point in my life that I do have some capital resource though, but it is only after a 30 year career of 60-70 hour weeks in the corporate finance/accounting arena and concurrently 10 years teaching the trade at the graduate school level. I live simply (same "starter" home bought 27 years ago and paid off 8 years ago, 10 year old car with 186,000 miles on it, etc...) but I do splurge on one "super nice" vacation a year. I like to at least think I know my way around corporate financial statements and I generally think I have a pretty strong overall acumen for identifying macro trends. Like all of us, I've had my share of swings and misses, but have also had some great successes. For example, having just returned from a cruise, my love for NVO (leading worldwide insulin provider with a dominant market share) is even stronger than my first purchase three years ago. The shipboard gluttony was worthy of pathos! And with the emerging world finding sugar and protein plentiful as standards of living climb, the world could be NVO's overindulged oyster. Lot's of patients coming their way in my over-simplified opinion.... One absolute for me is to avoid emotion in the markets though. I actually think that today's near acquiescence is the best possible thing that could have happened to the market for the mid-term. Another 5% wouldn't be so bad either. As for GSL, I've stated my position a few times here. I see value and I'm willing to have a fair amount amount of patience. I like Ian, I like his financial background/training, and I'm willing to give him some time here. With an average cost that just now tops $2.60, I'm still fine with performance although even I have winced a few times on the way down from the mid 7s. We'll see, I hope to consider this my "best yet" two to three years down the road....

    • B, If I had your money, I would throw mine away.
      You come back off of 'Vacation', down another dollar on 160K or so shares, and nonchalantly buy another 15K. That's rather an envious position. Next vacation, invite me for the Yacht navigator job. I will only look at the bikini clad hotties sipping smoothies, when you aren't. Never take your eye off the (b)roads, right? lol


    • Just back from vacation in time for what looks to be a healthy correction (unwinding the temporary impact of QE2) and what looks like a good write down of Euro "assets" overseas. Some pretty amazing price action this week for old GSL. I'm in again for another 15K at 3.30. Not planned, but as Cours notes, just about any way you cut this, GSL is "cheap" at these levels. Also just added another 5K of SFL at 13.30. The yield play there is just too strong to pass up (11.5%). I also concur that FRO is now a pretty nice longer term play and I have a 10K share buy waiting for 8-8.25 to strike.

      Loved to see some very healthy container traffic in and out of Hamilton, Bermuda last week. Of course, they are dependent on containers and this is their "in" season, but still loved to watch the action. I counted 3 fully loaded ships in 4 days come and go. Also noted that the Port of Elizabeth, NJ looked hopping coming out of New York.

      As for the Zim ships, I think that decision was made awhile ago and I am still in favor of it. Ian clearly wants them and has stated them to be a priority ahead of dividend resumption. True, they can walk and eat the deposits leaving them with a very healthy cash balance, but assuming the counter party stays healthy, the cash flows support a longer term healthier dividend flow. Personally, I also like breaking the CGM monopoly on counter-party risk for GSL. This is the one issue I look for Ian to resolve at the upcoming conference call. Fish or cut bait. The deadline on the option is quickly approaching and the uncertainty is adding to the downward pressure. Other than that, I expect another boring cash collection story. Anyone else expecting something different?

    • I think that it is rational, that to be logical, it is irrational not to plan for the illogical.


    • I think you can make good cases in either direction

    • I like the $8.00 target just fine. I am working on some dividend projections, but when the swaps expire, things could get REALLY good. Even if they repurchase most of the swaps, it will be at a better rate.

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1.67+0.03(+1.83%)Aug 26 4:00 PMEDT