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Global Ship Lease, Inc. Message Board

  • beginswithzpg beginswithzpg Mar 15, 2012 5:29 PM Flag

    Hello Old Friends

    I am considering a reentry into the market, which undoubtedly signals a short term top. It appears Yahoo scoundrels have besmirched my previously good (???) name though...so it is now a couple of letters longer than before.

    Any hot tips for an old compadre? My current plans are very conservative, having sold out of silver and gold last month and now 100% in cash. GSL looks like a winner, though I'm a bit late to the recent party. I'm thinking on the usual suspects...BAC, GM, XIDE, GKK, GSL.

    Anywho...hello again, fellow mariners.

    Best to all.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • BAC...long...and do not rule out BBVA...long. short..ZYNGA...and HAL...cheap right now

    • Pretty awesome story regarding your attention to detail in the CIT situation! I used to work at Goldman for a few years as well and was a publishing analyst there - I left a little less than a year ago and had a great experience during my time there. Feel free to shoot me an email at this Yahoo handle or anything if you'd like to chat more about that by the way.

      It was a little before my time, but I heard Mt Kellett's founder's name (McGoldrick) thrown around a bit during my time at Goldman - he really was a Wall St legend. Apparently, his last bonus was something to the tune of $70mn (which he didn't think was enough) before leaving the firm. But his track record of making stellar investments while in SSG was nothing short of spectacular. I don't have a good read on the situation (in particular because I am both new to these types of situations and don't know who is telling the truth here), but what is your take on Mt. Kellett's intentions here? It definitely gives me faith in the merits of my investment to be alongside a guy like McGoldrick, but I just hope the situation doesn't compromise the project or is too detrimental to shareholder value. Management needs to clean up their act for sure, but they've also done a lot of great things in arranging the financing, keeping things on schedule and on budget, etc. While I didn't vote, I'm a bit torn on who I would have voted for.

      Like you, I was mostly self taught though I was fortunate enough to land a job at GS fresh out of college (went to Northwestern University - majored in engineering/economics). I have a deep passion for learning and the markets and am always interested in hearing new ideas or learning new things. Where do you see your career eventually taking you?

      Hope you are well,
      Jim

    • jdfunnell@sbcglobal.net jdfunnell Mar 21, 2012 11:52 AM Flag

      That's why I mentioned a pullback to $16.50- $17. Yes, this used to trade between 95% and 105% of NAV, then moved up over time to the elevated premium we've seen over the past few years. Some of that has to do with Gross recommending it in the Barron's Roundtable two years in a row.

      Some of it has to do with offering a decent cash-on-cash dividend at market price.

      Anyway, I acknowledge the premium and the issue. Given the way this has behaved over the past several years, it seems the market price has a floor around 110% of NAV except for some minutes when it can dip a bit lower. One final note: the discount-to-NAV days, I believe, were largely back when Mark Kiesel managed the fund, so yeah, it's probably a Gross-related thing.............Dave

    • Check out the charts on ZLCS. Very interesting action

    • Whats up Z?
      Welcome back to the land of the living.
      My recent analysis' on the TNK MB is proving prescient, and are coming in line with hypothesised valuation(s).

      coursonc

    • Welcome back Z! Glad to know you are alive and well =)

      You missed my whole presentation on NCT in mid 2011. I am waiting on a secondary to buy more. A sustainable high yield play, not the deep value type you specialize in.

      • 1 Reply to endlessfin1te
      • I am back in part because my gf wants me to take over her retirement accounts. I've refused, but intend to continue pestering her advisor anyway. Some good, non-govt-bond ideas are welcome. She needs about 7% solid returns for 5 years to retire pretty well bulletproof. I am pushing her/him to consider moving 25% of her mutual fund and bond holdings out into equal parts of FSC, BBEP, BIP, NNA & HTGC.

        Other than that, I am always open to a possible 50-100% gain in a week or two on some thing or other. Definitely looking at the copper play mentioned above....may hop in Monday. Right now I am trading the F Jan $15 calls daily, with a long holding of 600 core contracts. It is amazing how much and how predictably this option fluctuates over the past three months. Today was a buying bonanza with quad witching. I expect F will clear $13 easily next week, barring a mideast war or similar exogenous event. This may be the last window for getting into F and GM at current levels. They've been reputation-hampered a long time...and it will end before you know it, imo. Kinda like BAC at $6...tell your grandkids.

    • GKK reported some good numbers last night. PPS dropped though. Might want to look at it again.

    • Welcome back, Z =).

      Take a look at Baja Mining BAJ.to - there is a pink-version in the US as well - (Copper miner, production begins in 1h 2013, fully funded and mine construction happening now). This is probably my favorite high-confidence stock pick at this point. Fair value very conservatively at $4-$5 in 2013-2014 and trading at $1 now.

      If you want some more risk with insane rewards, take a look at Yellow Media (YLO.to, also has pinks in the US for common/prefs/etc). I only own C&D preferred and YLO bonds in this one (Bond prices have firmed up since I bought in).

      Here is a YLO model that a group of investors have created: http://www.glenbradford.com/files/Stocks/YLO%20debt.xls

      Cheers, mate!

      -Fernando

    • Oh...and perhaps foolishly I have a boatload of Jan $15 F calls. Like 600 of them.

 
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