Why the big drop today? I haven't seen any big breaking news...thoughts? Looking for a re-entry point, any opinions? Also curious about the Galyan buyout. I haven't read much about it on this board, it shot this stock price up 5 or 6 points, but not much chatter about the details since. Is it as good a deal as originally thought?
"you're absolutely right alex. and I plan to buy on the next big dip.
if this is the start of the big one, I'm screwed, as I have essentially no oil position now."
Its not. Its a parabolic rise about to lead to a vertical crash. I'm guessing it'll fall to about $37-41, and that the top is somewhere between here and 50. If I am wrong, I dont care, since I have 10% of my portfolio in the energy sector, and am just holding.
Silver went parabolic in feb-march just like oil is now doing, and it crashed in april. I made the mistake of thinking the rise would never end. (Luckily I had gotten in months earlier, and lost my profits, but not my starting capital, by holding). When oil crashes, all the speculators worried about inflation that are now pushing it up will flip back into gold and silver, and other beaten down commodities, since they have started to rise again. (At least thats my guess).
The oil services index has already started falling, and reminds me of what happened at the top in the metals in march: the stocks stopped rising and the metals kept going. Now oil stocks have stopped rising and oil keeps going. Its near the top. Plus, there is now daily commentary about the oil price in the mainstream financial news. Now is the time to buy beaten down mining stocks, at some point a few months down the road it'll be time to switch back to oil/energy.
Thats all my guesses of course. Good luck everyone!
you're absolutely right alex. and I plan to buy on the next big dip.
if this is the start of the big one, I'm screwed, as I have essentially no oil position now. but I am betting on a near-term peak forming, and am confident of another crash in price from additional supply *this time*.
by the way, I think oil is now near a short term peak. Long term however, I believe the peak oil scenario will send things higher.
The peak oil scenario never says there isnt a lot of oil out there, it says that there istn a lot of CHEAP oil left out there...there is oil that is expensive to get out of the ground, and thus oil prices must rise.
there is an ass load of oil out there. it's just in places without infra-structure and in countries that arn't too stable.
russia, venesualea, and north africa.
trouble being, the price to bring this juice in, isn't cheap, like it used to be.
these countries want a big piece of the pie. not like it used to be.
ven. demands nearly one half off the top, from all oil out of their fields. hnr, for example, pays twenty some for every oil b. exported.
russia is playing the same hand.
shorted this stock, by the way.
I do think we are near a short term peak in oil, so if looking to buy I would be waiting for a pullback.
Nasdaq is toast, to be shorted when it rallies... Gold has been going sideways for months now after a severe decline in the mining equities. A buy, as an inflation hedge, for those not already in.
I finaly got around to reading 'Bill Fleckenstein's latest article' and found it very interesting. And on 'peak oil' I still think somewhat diferently. If China were to cast off its communistic government then I would REALY be worried that they would suck up HUGH amounts of oil.
One thing for the long term prospective. When we develop fuels cells the Chinese will copy them. So that country may never have a hugh amount of gas guzlers. Just like they;ll never have tons of land lines for fones.
Good luck to you.
"Sorry to interrupt this quaint conversation you are having with maci, but I disagree."
LOL! I am quaint!.
Heres my reply--I agreed it would help dks "long term" which is what he said.
He didnt comment on the short term & I think it is more likely to hurt them there.
Val has also been saying the housing bubble will burst...for the past 2 years. You throw enough
He also posted on the CKR board that he is honest 85% of the time and the other 15% he outright lies.
Imagine that. Confirming something we have known all the while...