Plus it take a quarter for the royalty checks to catch up to earnings. The analysts project like any well drilled by an operator goes straight to NOG's bottom line in the current quarter. Royalties don't work that way, for instance the WLL Tarpon well, won't show up on NOG earnings until 1st calander quarter, as opposed to the 4th quarter for WLL.
Banker analysts sitting in NY/NY never have received a royalty check, it just isn't in their upstairs faculties how the payout out of royalties actually works. It is not that they are stupid, they just don't understand the process. It's like on Bloomberg how they report ND "high" crude, the word is "light". Look at those posts of Bloom Burger using that term "high" on this board. They seem like educated folks? But do they really care?
RGLD has the same royalty problem, takes a quarter to catch up, to where the analysts think the earnings should be. Could be keeping the company cheap effect by the analysts as they accumulate, for other divisions inside the financial super stores. There is no ring fence, or wall, and no one is enforcing the wall. Which is actully why banks, brokers, insurance, commodites dealers, mutual funds all need to be seperated.
Because they don't control drilling and can't give guidance with certainty others can. They also hedge for certainty of cashflow to fund future expenses (some at losses) Delay in completions out of their control due to weather. Look at derisked and proven reserves and y/y revenue. Downspacing will keep this going for a very long time!