Shorts and Longs make stupid ANV predictions that don't come true
Shorts: "This will drop to $2 on the day of earnings!!" Longs: "This will be at $5 this week, $6 in one month guaranteed!"
Then when they are wrong they ignore their stupid prediction or dissappear. Basically nobody knows where this will be tomorrow, 1 week, or on month from now. We place our bets on the side we believe in and hope for the best based on fundamental or technical analysis or random guessing.
If you are short or long and act brazenly confident and DON'T give a target price with a target date then you are worthless in your supposed confidence. Just as worthless as if you name a time period and target price and are wrong.
I am long on this stock, and I think it has some room to drop for tax off selling, but not the gloom and doom of $2... maybe down to 3.50$. This stock will turn around in 2014 when PMs recover and when their production gets ramped up from the Merrill Crowe.
The shorts are in it because they think it is going bankrupt.... there is no way 75% institutional ownership will let something like this go bankrupt. They will get the funding. Shorts are trapped at 20% float and will have to buy back eventually.
There is a sense in which the price action has little bearing on reality. As discussed here and elsewhere, other miners have reported worse guidance, worse production numbers, worse costs and yet are rewarded by the market, whereas we have done everything right and are getting punished. Something is clearly broken, and while you could have made the overvalued argument a year ago, now we are so deeply undervalued that I am genuinely surprised no one has swept in and made an offer.