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  • horacebello horacebello May 5, 2009 12:53 AM Flag

    FAZ and "steljan 100"

    "We shall wait and see,,,I didn’t come here to argue with plp but to encourage those who might feel there’s no chance for banks to go down.
    Because this day shouldn’t be viewed as a reason to panic but should be viewed as the last day of the market manipulation.
    Dow to 4700 pts by mid July

    What about this for everyone in this board.
    1st I appreciate everyones opinion inhere and I’m surely not here to dash anyone.
    Let me interpret the news that you guys have been reading the past 2 months.
    1st and most important quote by the FED; "We will buy almost 1 trillion$ in bonds and expand our balance sheet to 2.3 trillion$".
    This is what the FED really said that day; Foreign investors can not buy and dont want to buy any more of our debt that’s why we the FED are forced to buy Americas debt and be the only lender.
    link for that theory
    http://obama.wsj.com/article/03KK0S8ffi0...
    2nd 2 weeks ago when the market start going down after BAC earnings and the next day MS reported bad news the market looked as if it is going to fall of a cliff FAZ was at 13$ premarket,,,only to do a full reversal during trading hours after Geithner assured the congress Americas banks are well capitalized.
    During this weekend we heard BAC and C would have to raise 10billion$ and are undercapitalized,,,the market took it well until WFC got downgraded and it looked like the rally was over until the rumor was going around that AIG wont need any more money, and the market ripped with WFC.
    After 4pm we start hearing that some banks might need up to 50 billion$ to pass the test.
    Interpretation every bad news is followed by bad news and every nr such as 10 billion for C is only used to test the sentiment if the market can accept 10 billion the nrs will be raised the next day just to see if the market can swallow that,,,if the market can not good news will be released to stop the bleeding right away.
    Aig doesn’t need any money means there’s no more payout for GS and JPM so that is not necessary good news.
    The market will figure that out tomorrow.
    The FED saying during their meeting they wont increase their bond purchase plan, doesn’t mean that the situation is okay it means there is no more money left for bailouts and purchasing toxic assets.
    And last but not least
    Financials have gone up 60-70% the market only 30%
    this points on a pricing rally not fundamental rally, financials revisiting their lows for a double bottom,,,this means the market will be shaved in half".
    ________________________________________________________________

    Living in Argentina and reading a lot every day, it’s impossible to define how reliable or sense of responsibility have everyone.
    But –always is a but- the people who read Darth, Trad,,, I’m talking about the simple students like Skipper, Fariba, etc (of course me too) not only learn with the most experienced guys because of their acknowledgment: NO.
    They have credit without using cards. (“credit” in latin means “believe”)
    Of course some days may be wrongs, BUT..-always is a but- we first read the responsibility and after that, their opinions.
    Many months (year?) ago, reading Schultz, I found him very proud and logic at the same time > agree more gold in the pocket and remains there.
    my god…
    where are we going?
    If this logic guy buying FAZ has some reason, we may have great opportunities but…-always is a but- how dark is the future in this game.

    Sorry but…I need your opinions again.

    (My diagnostic is a raw one: if DJIA close below 7700 one day…. “steljan 100” buying FAZ,‘ll win a lot)

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    • ...toxic values at 25/30%.

      Which was the percentage accepted by the banks from Chrysler's debt before bankrupcy? 29%
      __________________________________________________________________

      WFC confirmed -10 days before- their numbers winning 3 /4 thousand billions...
      Their balance sheet says something different: with toxic at nominal prices the addition is OK but...30% is the current value and nobody want to buy them.

      Everybody knows the very bad quality subprimes at Wachovia.
      Wachovia bought Golden West Finantial during 2006 and was a great mistake because of the adjustable subprimes they had.
      How WFC cleaned these in the last balance???
      Nobody knows...Did David Cooperfield the last balance sheet?

      Adjustable subprime are really a disaster; they are not conventional: they start, an example, at 30 or 40% from reference tax and after sometimes, the percentage grows over 100%, so, for these subprime instruments the interest taxes have grown!!

      don't you think WFC 'll need a new adjust with the next valuations??
      Looking at jobless and house prices the answer is...YESSSSSSS

      Evidently, the market bought the WFC's history and I agree with all the rallies but...WFC has to return after the 27 dollars (Darth dixit and agree with his prediction)

      More incredible would be AIG if it continues going ahead...
      Sorry women and gentlemans...but -always is a but- I'm argentine and very stupid so: We saw and lived this previously, and was very dark.

      God bless America for ever and ever.

      • 1 Reply to horacebello
      • Horace,

        That post you copied from the FAZ board sounds like someone trying to justify their decision. I wouldn't put too much faith in it.

        The question staring everyone in the face is are we in a new bull market, still in the bear market, or going to just trade sideways in a channel like the 1970s.

        Until there is a higher low followed by a higher high on the S&P500 there is no confirmation we are in a new bear market. If you look at a daily or weekly chart of the S&P going back to OCT'08 you will see that we are potentially forming a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern. For that pattern to form the market needs to go back down and test the Nov lows around 740-760.

        My biggest fear is the long term, 4-20 years. Never in my lifetime have I seen such an anti-business administration. If the central planning socialist economy that Obama wants is put into place the US will stop growing and suffer greatly. They already control the banks and auto industry and are planning to take over healthcare and energy. No growth = no gain to the stock market.

        Everyone I know who has a business, who creates things, who creates jos, who makes the economy run, is scared in a way I have never seen before. They are afraid their children and grandchildren will not have the opportunity that made America great. I fear we are watching the US government implement full fledged Fascism.

    • ...horace...imo you can't officially say we're in a new bull market till GOOG gets to 412.11, which was the low in march 2008...we're close, but not there yet...~

      • 1 Reply to squantpea
      • Thanks squntpea and Trad.
        I can't sleep very well last night and my real problem isn't the market.
        What I didn't write is one thing you never lived with the same frecuency like us, and in this point I'm agree with another two more persons:

        Mr Warren Buffett said last saturday:
        "the cost of the recent and massive Treasury rescue 'll be paid with INFLATION".(I remember the idea, not the exactly words)

        and three months ago, Mr Bradford De Long -at Finantial Times- wrote something coinciding with fear's Trad -my fear too-:
        "during the next years, should be the states who decide the production".

        China decides all the times every life. No democracy and 'll continue in this way. With or without "China capitalism", they repeat the state and THE LIFE controls.
        Russia in buying the good and bad corporations. Is taking all they think strategy or profitable in the future.
        USA had to buy AIG, CITY and FDIC can't use its knife with the big banks corporates.

        That's the point and both persons aren't socialist.

        Do you understand what I'm trying to say?

        I don't have you or Mr Darth acknowledgment but I've a stupid one in replacement because of my nacionality (I love my country): INFLATION or Hyperinflation over our shoulders every decade of my life.
        I don't want these for all of you in the next years. Believe me.