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BIOLASE, Inc. Message Board

  • mrexcelerator mrexcelerator Oct 7, 2004 12:33 PM Flag

    growth rate

    It really is over!

    Falling from 65% to 33% to zero. They say non GAAP revenues of $10.7m in Q3 2003. I show GAAP $13.4m less the liquidation of $1m in Deferred product charges or $12.3m How much could they have sold at the convention AND how much of it would have shipped in the quarter. Even an additional million would confirm the end of the growth curve. 17-20m in Q4 with the boost of the last year of the $100k section 179 tax writeoff is not a resumtion of growth. They are saying 10-25% growth.

    Last quarters 33% could have been just a blip. Management spun it that way. Now we know better.

    What is a company earning 25� next year growing at 10% worth?

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    • Uh, ok... I guess with your short memory you forget that last year's Q3 represented nearly 100 percent revenue growth, and was atypically strong... even compared to Q2 last year. Most times, Q3 and Q2 are very close in terms of revenue, but last year Biolase posted nearly 30 percent sequential growth in Q3 which never happens with this company.

      Compare one particularly bad quarter with one particularly good quarter, and you're bound to get a skewed picture of the reality of the situation.

      I always thought you were a pretty cool headed guy, but even you are capable of jumping to conclusions it seems.

      Growth rate, based SOLELY on this crappy Q3 looking back more than just one year, is still 30 percent. I don't think it's been confirmed that this company's growth rate is stalled, although I am very disappointed in the cut forecast for Q4.

      • 1 Reply to brettkeating
      • BLTI is so hard to get a handle on without accounting for the restatements
        Q3 2003 revenue growth was 70% greater than Q3 2002. Q3 2002 was weak relatively so exact comps look a bit rosey. Sequential growth was from 11.1 to 12.4m

        My position in this stock (to a fiar extent liquidated in July) was based on the company growing at 50% and reaching double digit market penetration by the end of the decade. I was expecting a smooth path - those 14 quarters spoiled me.

        Biolase has built in growth with the increased number of machines installed due to maintenance and consumables. They really could have maintained the 50% rate for years had the dental community continued with enthuiasm.

        So I discount managements 10-25%^ growth for next quarter and have to contend with just how much I think the new revenue growth rate will be.

        Problem is the company is running just a bit above break even at the current sales level. It does not have EPS to drive the stock price nad now not growth.

    • How can you make that claim. Especially when you ask 95 percent of the public about a dental laser to do a root canal and they would not have a clue what you are talking about.

      The growth rate is anywhere form 0-50, with a buyback.

      • 3 Replies to billberggren
      • bill
        I remain bullish on the technology. Sales figures seem to show that there is not a movement from early adopters to the mainstream. My laser dentist likes the tool but is decidedly cool about the machine in terms of value. THe Waterlase takes a major commitment to extract value, more than most dentists would like to give.

        The nail in the coffin is the upper end of Q4's estimate. No migration of this quarters $5m shortfall into Q4 plus you have to discount some of the 4Q growth because of the tax break expiration. Remember a dentist can buy a Waterlase in Q4 and be cash flow positive on the thing for a year or two (if he finances it).

        What can we expect in Q1 2005 compared with this years 65% growth rate?

        Growth is over for now

      • You fucking idiot.

        Every post you make has the word "buyback" in it.

        You probably scream "buyback" while you fuck your wife.

        Give it a rest!


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